Rocket attacks on Israel perpetrated by the so-called Omar Brigades, evoked the familiar diatribe “Israel has the right to defend itself,” and “"we will hold Hamas responsible for everything that happens in the Gaza Strip” to the chagrin of Israeli critics. Despite fears that Israel is preparing to level Palestinian homes and kill sores of Palestinian civilians thanks to this stereotypical rhetoric, the reality that Israel’s retaliatory strikes have not resulted in any causalities is an encouraging sign that Israel is showing much needed restraint.
Given Hamas appears to be battling the Omar Brigades, punitive airstrikes on Hamas targets are both ineffective and counterproductive, especially when considering Hamas, or any Palestinian body for that matter, is already struggling to provide security against radical Islamist Salafist groups. Targeted strikes against these supporters of the Islamic States are, however, beneficial to both Israel and the Palestinians People in terms of national security. Defending the Palestinian People also helps transform Israel from an enemy in the eyes of Muslims to a protector.
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The more often tensions rise in the Ukraine Crisis, the less alarmed people are by the threats of global war, even as that threat grows in the wake of fleeting peace. Escalating breeches of an international brokered ceasefire and a reported build up of somewhere around 10,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine suggest Russia is planning to launch a major offensive into the former Soviet State.
Although no one knows the exact outcome of the Ukraine Crisis, the flash point for direct Russia intervention is what might be used to develop a viable resolution. For Westerners, the Ukraine Crisis will escalate to an international war once Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he can get away with invading Ukraine. On the other hand, there is also the possibility that Putin truly does believe his involvement in the Ukraine Crisis is a justified preemptive strike against spreading European influence and a silent NATO invasion. Unsettling allegations of collaboration between the Islamic State and the Assad regime, along with reports of growing Iranian nuclear stockpiles, are quickly being overshadowed by rising tensions in the Ukraine Crisis and the South China Sea. The truth is that the fallout of an armed conflict involving the West, Russia, and Asia would be far more devastating to the world than a drawn out conflict with the Islamic State, so the International Community must be distracted by these unnecessary crises. That said, the dynamics in the Ukraine Crisis and South China Sea are not changing as they crescendo; whereas, the situation in the Middle East is on the verge a major shift.
Although Russia’s strong ties to China, Iran, and the Assad regime could have little to no impact on the aforementioned conflicts, underestimating Putin’s desire to dominate the West and surpass the United States as the world’s most powerful nation would be foolish. A cold-calculating assassin like former-KGB operator Vladimir Putin would certainly not think twice about pitting the US against China, even if the Asia nation is its ally, in order to weaken them for Russian dominance or using terrorists to accomplish his goals. After all, it appears Putin’s pledge at the onset of the Ukraine Crisis to build a Russian economy with zero-reliance on the West may well be honored with the rise of a war economy sustained by perpetual war. Obama’s Legacy and the Rush to Solve Problems with Iran, Syria, Russia, China, Cuba, and Myanmar6/2/2015 As the final days of the George W. Bush Administration approached, the State Department abruptly shifted gears from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in a bid to save the legacy of the Presidency. Just as the Bush Administration failed to solve the decades-old conflict, the Obama Administration is scrambling to cement its legacy by engaging in similar misguided policy pushes. From the Iranian Nuclear Deal to a restart of US-Cuban relations, the Obama Administration may well be setting itself up for failure by undertaking an ambitious foreign policy agenda, especially when considering all of the emerging crises throughout the world.
The foreign policy initiatives of the Obama Administration can only be successful if the parties involved want and need them to be successful. Quite frankly, the end of a Presidency is what might be called an “artificial timeline.” Forcing progress in order to meet that timeline only sets the diplomatic process up for failure while leaving any success to be reversed by the next Administration. Looking at the US-Cuban diplomatic reset, the reality that the Castro regime is dying and politically unpopular could mean quick progress opens up the island nation to accelerated political and cultural changes. |
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April 2020
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