Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has expressed his frustrations over the lack of material gains in terms of sanctions relief. Although he will currently allow nuclear talks to move forward and his message could be a way of pressuring the West to prematurely ease sanctions, which would be a misinterpretation of Western interests as preventing Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon is a far more vital national interest than partnering and coordinating with Iran on regional issues, it would appear moderate President Hassan Rouhani is losing political support, which means his broader effort to reconcile Iran’s differences with the US and much of the Western is threatened. This, of course, also means his domestic agenda of rebuilding Iran is also under siege.
Looking at the Supreme Leader’s call for Muslims around the world to aid Hamas in its fight against Israel at the end of July, it also appears the true power in Iran prioritizes its ability to expand its regional influential in the short-term over healing its democratic economy through normalized relations with the West as this writer has discussed in previous posts. Given growing instability throughout the Middle East, which can only be addressed with the aid of some Western intervention, Israel’s threats to bomb Iran over its ambition, Iran’s own internal civil unrest, which it managed to suppress the largest outbreak of public dissent in 2009, the Supreme Leader would be wise to recognize building a functional relationship with the US will take a great deal of time and involve Iran shifting some of its core nuclear priorities, especially since failing to do so will hurt Iran’s ability to respond to threats to its own stability.
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April 2020
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