The Washington Outsider

Israel Provokes Renewed Fighting and Threatens Its Own National Security

8/31/2014

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 For the Palestinians, Hamas may well be an unsavory group, but it is seen as their only means of defending themselves from the Israeli government’s thorough neglect of their interests.  Although the Israeli government may have subdued criticism of its recent overly-aggressive military campaign against Hamas, thanks in part to Hamas breaking initial seize-fire agreements with renewed rocket attacks, and weakened support for Hamas, its latest appropriation of nearly 1,000 acres of Palestinian farmland in West Bank completely undermines claims that the Jewish state seeks peace.  Feeling emboldened by its latest victory, the Israeli government apparently feels it has the right to treat the Palestinian People as it pleases, but this latest move is thoroughly deserving of criticism.   

What Israel’s move does is undermine any trust the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslim world might have in Israel as a partner for Middle Eastern stability while it clearly provokes a fight with Hamas.  In the words of Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, Hamas feels "alone in the field" due to a lack of support from the Muslim world.  Israel's latest move will not only undermine the Palestinian Authority's effort to reassert its influence over the Gaza Strip and help revive support for Hamas among Palestinians, it will resonate well with jihadists looking to target Israel.  Israel might have the military might to treat the Palestinians as it pleases, but it does not have enough military might to fight off the rest of the Muslim world.  Quite frankly, Israel is making itself an even more attractive target for extremists while it also becoming a destabilizing force in a globalizing Muslim world, thus it is making itself a threat to its neighbors and itself.   
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President Assad, There Is Another Way to Defeat the Islamic State 

8/29/2014

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With the shocking progress of the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria, as well as the mass execution of up to 250 or more Syrian military personnel, the Assad regime is under growing pressure from the Islamic State and its allies to take control of the situation.  It even reached out to suggest coordinating operations with the US would be possible.  Quite frankly, the United State is never going to bolster the Assad regime.  At best, US strikes against Islamic State forces in Syria would be conducted to support Western-friendly Free Syrian Army forces and, potentially, corral both the Islamic State and the Assad regime into a mutually destructive war.  That said, the US and its allies are open to supporting the Syrian People, so Assad does have a better third option that helps him stay alive and prevent his rule from destabilizing the region.

The Islamic State, much like any extremist organization, is a threat to regional stability and the national security interests of countries around the world.  While Iran, as well as other actors, has an interest in propping up the Assad Regime in order to support its ambitions to be a regional power with substantial influence over its neighbors, what fleeting benefit the Assad regime could potentially offer Iran in the distant future is dwarfed by the current threat of the Islamic State.  Meanwhile, Iran’s influence over Iraq clearly shows Middle Eastern nations can collaborate with the United States and still be influenced by Iran.  Consequently, supporters of the Assad regime have a greater interest in seeing the US help contain the Islamic State than ensuring the Assad regime survives.    


If the United States, its Western allies, and regional partners had the support of the Syrian military, the hazards of intervening in Syria with airstrikes would largely disappear.  If Assad and the rest of his government were to leave power, the Obama Administration would be under serious political and diplomatic pressure to act against the Islamic State in Syria.  The fortunate reality of the Free Syrian Army being commanded by forcer Syrian military leaders is that they are qualified to take control of Syrian forces in such a way that the West can have confidence knowing the Assad regime is honestly giving up power.  Due to Iraq’s often-conflicting partnerships with both the United States and Iran, which is also linked to the Assad regime, there is even an opportunity to indirectly implement a coordinated strategy against the Islamic State.

What Bashar al-Assad and his most infamous officials need is a way out of Syria, which Iran could offer them asylum, so they can prepare to leave behind an intermediate leadership capable of maintaining what government functions are still being undertaken and transferring power to a transitional government.  It must first, however, stop attacking its own citizens and Western supported Free Syrian Army forces then quickly move to develop an agreement with the Syrian National Council on how a power transfer might occur and what officials will stay behind to implement the transition, starting with the command of Syria’s armed forces.  As Assad is likely to reject this solution, both his internal and external supporters need to recognize Assad has no future in Syria, thus they need to pressure and/or force him to leave before the gains made by the Islamic State are irreversible.  For Iran, supporting the inevitable failure of the Assad regime now would move Syria toward stability quicker and earn Iran favor with the United States as both rivals struggle to mend fences.
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Ukraine Crisis: Russia Giving West an “Out”  

8/28/2014

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin offered humanitarian aid to those in Eastern Ukraine who were affected by fighting between government troops and pro-Russian separatists, the West expected anything from another PR stunt to make Russia look like a generous benefactor being vilified by the West to a covert invasion of Ukraine.  After the humanitarian convoy of over 200 trucks trespassed into Ukraine via separatist controlled border posts, instead of waiting for the Red Cross to be able to escort the aid into Ukraine and check all of the trucks, which were largely empty, the world was left searching for answers when the convoy returned to Russia within hours.  Although it was possible Russia may have been attempting to evacuate Russian troops, rebel forces, and other evidence from Eastern Ukraine as part of a drawdown strategy, this hope was quickly dashed when supposed separatist-controlled tanks were spotted entering Ukraine from Russia a day later.   

Since then, the world has seen mounting evidence of a Russian invasion as supposed-rebel forces began taking over new territory along the Ukrainian-Russian border, which would give Russia a land route to the Crimea territory it blatantly stole from Ukraine in March and secure Russia’s control over the Sea of Azov’s energy bounty.  Given Russian troops have been captured within Ukraine and NATO has observed Russian forces flowing into Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see even the most minuscule validity in Putin’s version of reality.  The Russian government, however, continues to spin the truth for the sake of an audience disillusioned with the West and/or seeking the favor of Russia.  If Putin was going to allow the Ukrainian Crisis to be resolved, he would have used talks between Russia and Ukraine to make his government appear heroic, but Russia does what it wants and Russia wants to secure its influence over Ukraine.  

As winter approaches, Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas for heating, the ability and willingness of political leaders to implement sanctions against Russia will only wane.   Meanwhile, the US and its allies are trying to deal with the Islamic State crisis in the Middle East, among other issues, thus Putin understands the West wants to see the Ukrainian Crisis resolved as soon as possible.  Given Russia’s duel track strategy of engaging in talks with Ukraine and the increased military activity occurring in Ukraine, it would appear Russia may well be giving the West an “out.”  That is, Putin is giving the West the diplomatic solutions we want so Western powers can save face and reverse our sanctions against Russia while quickly moving to suppress Ukrainian independence in order to avoid political backlash that protracted conflicts tend to attract when stories continually saturate the news.  Quite frankly, the West should not abandon Ukraine as doing so would only undermine the legitimacy of the International Community and encourage Russia, as well as other countries, to simply force their will onto weaker states.  Consequently, the West needs to aggressively balance Russian propaganda with well-framed facts and ratchet-up sanctions against Russia to their highest possible level in order to end this conflict before war becomes the only solution. 
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Iraq and Syria Strategy: Give Islamic State Safe Haven and Help Assad Fight

8/26/2014

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In spite of mounting pressure for the US to expand its Iraq bombing campaign into Syria, the Obama Administration’s hesitation is thoroughly appropriate.  While the Islamic State is a regional threat that cannot be addressed if the terrorist organization is allowed to use Syria as a safe haven, the US cannot act to empower other hostiles, including the Assad regime, the Al Qaeda affiliated Al-Nusra front, and lesser threats.  Although it may be tempting to forgo addressing the broader and long-term ripple effects of engaging the more immediate threat that is the Islamic State, the US, its global partners, and regional security forces should attempt to use one stone to kill two birds.  

When the activities of the Islamic State were largely contained within Syria, the threat to global and regional interests was only a potential; whereas, the threat to the Assad regime was not only imminent, it actually served Western and regional interests.  It is when the Islamic State started attacking Free Syrian Army forces, conquering Iraqi territory, and pushing into other nations like Lebanon that the Islamic State became a regional and global problem.  What the US and regional security forces need to is develop a strategy that reestablishes this once beneficial dynamic.  Assad wants US and regional cooperation on addressing the Islamic State and the Islamic State wants the US to stop bombing them, so it only makes sense to give them what they want in order to secure American interests in the region.   

Because the US cannot fully eliminate the Islamic State and/or Assad’s forces without a major military engagement and commitment over years, even with the aid of regional security forces, the US should seek to corral the Islamic State and Assad’s forces into a single war zone.  Providing support to protect Western friendly forces could utilize the limited airstrikes America is willing and able to provide in order to help regional forces funnel Islamic State fighters into territory controlled by Assad’s military.  In other words, the US should strategically allow the Islamic State shifting save havens with boundaries determined by what territory is controlled by friendly forces that make a war with Assad forces the easiest battle for the Islamic State.  Engaging in such a strategy would likely help weaken and/or defeat both sides.
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Governance Problem: Recognizing a Big Factor in Global Crises

8/25/2014

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Increasing numbers of people around the world demanding their interests be met through political engagement is a boon for the democratic way of life, but the failure of governance through the world is a terrible threat to all nations and our modern world.  As France and Ukraine dissolve their governments over conflicting interests on every issue from economics to national security, competing factions struggling to establish themselves as the legitimate rulers of places like Iraq, Libya, and Pakistan, coupled with a lack of consensus governance in major powers like the US and Japan, a growing pattern is starting to reveal a major global problem.    

If the issue were limited to just the United States, which faces persistent partisan gridlock, the issue could largely be explained away by a lack of leadership.  If the issue was limited to a country like Afghanistan or Pakistan, the world could blame a history of ingrained dysfunction.  If the issue was limited to a place like Iraq, the world could simply blame the problem on irresolvable cultural differences.  Limiting the issue to Spain, for example, would indicate a problem rooted in degenerative fiscal policies while the situation in Ukraine could be classified as a distressing situation brought on by damaging outside influence.  As dysfunctional governance is a globalized issue, all these factors and more must be blamed as the world has embraced a culture of dysfunction that is not yet fully understood. 

When an individual encounters an obstacle in his, or her life, that person is able to overcome that problem given enough time, resources, support, knowledge, experience, skills, and perseverance.  When a person’s capacity to cope with a situation is overwhelmed, the ensuing crisis results from an inability to resolve the issue (s) at hand.  The same is true for state actors, i.e. governments.  Considering the myriad of issues faced by governments around the world, as well as personal differences, political leaders are overwhelming their capacity to cope, thus they shut down, conflict, and/or engage in other defense mechanisms that is culminating into dysfunctional government. 


Unfortunately, there is no one straightforward answer.  Solving the problem does, however, starts with individual leaders who must engage government in order to represent the interests of their supporters, balance those interests with the broader interests of everyone, offer balanced solutions to issues, and try to work under the frameworks of broadly supported already existing solutions while being willing to embrace personal sacrifice, which Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki did in the end, instead of consistently taking hardliner stances and pursuing personal interests over national interests.  It also involves working with other governments and security forces to suppress those who willfully use violence when others refuse to submit to their self-serving demands.  Finally, globalized dysfunctional governance must be addressed by the Peoples of the world proactively engaging their governments in a constructive manner, i.e. helping to find practical, viable issues that balance the interests of all fellow citizens.
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        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
      • What is a Redneck? Understanding Different Cultures and Thinking
    • Economics >
      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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