The Washington Outsider

Aleppo Offensive: The Syrian Civil War Escalates with New Assad-Putin Strategy Revealed 

4/30/2016

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The Aleppo Offensive by the Bashar al-Assad government has finally revealed its latest strategy to win Syria back for the brutal, minority regime.  While the US and Russia work reinstitute ceasefires on the local level, which excludes Aleppo, the Assad regime and Russia justify their assault on Aleppo, because militant have been active in the area.  As the whole territory of Syria is a divided battleground and insurgents can only be expected to shift their limited resources to secure their territory against changing threats, the objective is a lightly veiled effort to besiege rebel-held territory while maintaining a ceasefire across the rest of Syria.
 
In order for the Assad-Putin strategy to be successful, the so-called cession of hostilities must hold elsewhere across Syria, so additional forces can be diverted to Aleppo.  In addition, insurgent must remain distracted by the war on the Islamic State and Al Nursa.  The goal will be to break rebel lines at Aleppo then recapture part of Syria over time.  Meanwhile, Russia has already been busy discouraging the US and its allies amid re-escalating tensions between NATO and Russia, thus trying to force the West to choose between supporting the defense of the Syrian People and risking a war with Russia.
That said, the US and its allies across the world cannot afford to capitulate on any of the issues in play.  Where the US military delivered a less-than-satisfactory report on a chain of errors that resulted in the 2015 US bombing of a Doctors without Borders hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, the Putin and Assad governments appear to be have been using the incident to justice a strategy of “accidental bombings” across Syria since September, 2015.  Although the Middle Eastern governments have never embraced the ideals of human rights when addressing security threats, Russia’s willingness to embrace war crimes to achieve its goals demonstrates the world faces a return to the dark ages of total war that dominated the pre-Geneva Convention West. 
 
On the other hand, the Obama Administration cannot allow itself to be pulled into another unwinnable war.  The United States does have interests in Iraq and Syria, specially ensuring the Islamic State does not become a far more serious threat to the US.   It is, however, important to remember the Islamic State is a far more pressing concern for those in Middle East and Africa, as well as Europe and Asia.  The unfortunate reality is that terrorist groups like the Islamic State will continue to arise in the Middle East as long as the underlying issues behind destabilizing civil unrest and terrorism exist. 
 
Quite frankly, countering Russian influence is the worst possible reason to escalate US intervention in Syria and Iraq.  If Russia and Iran do manage to avoid alienating major groups within Syria and Iraq any further than they already have, they may end up enjoying increased influence in those territories.  The US has, however, learned from the Middle East that such costly influence easily evaporates while the modern world is one where countries are free to form multilateral relations with revivals of their closest allies.  In other words, Russia is unlikely to secure Middle Eastern influence over the US in the Middle East by protecting Assad.
 
In regards to the role of world powers like the US, air support can give ground forces the edge needed to defeat insurgents.  Strategic missions to free hostages, gather intelligence, and eliminate leadership can reduce the effectiveness of a terrorist group.  Providing nonlethal aid and reluctantly supplying well-controlled arms is a way of ensuring a solid anti-insurgent campaign has what it needs to be successful.  Given Russian aggression against Europe, which was made apparent due to the Ukraine Crisis and the South China Sea Crisis with China, this is the level of commitment the International Community can afford to offer Syrian forces.
 
Furthermore, Syria could easily become Russia’s second Afghanistan.  Not only is this a very compelling reason why the US should avoid escalation in the region, it also gives the West and the Middle East leverage to discourage continued Russian intervention.  Facing economic collapses and overextending its military in the wake of the Ukraine Crisis, Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has to be short-lived.  Unlike the US entering Iraq, Russia is entering a mature conflict by choice in a weakened state.  The scenario is even worse than the one faced when the US decided to enter the Vietnam War. 
 
The reason United States had so much difficulty in Iraq and Vietnam is that America was fighting a ground war against insurgents.  The US stayed and allowed itself to be bogged down, because it was trying to nation build, which requires defending a territory.  Although it is highly unlikely that Russia plans to nation build, it is likely that Russia will attempt to avoid a ground war by engaging in a campaign of airstrikes.  Unfortunately for Russia and the Assad regime, the goal of US-led airstrikes is to provide air support for ground forces actually fighting the Islamic State, i.e. airstrikes alone cannot defeat insurgents. 
 
While Russia’s campaign will be far more intense, Assad has already demonstrated the shortcomings of airstrikes.  Russian airstrikes will not be able more successful that US airstrikes.  Consequently, Russia will be forced to either engage in a ground campaign or eventually allow the Assad regime to be overrun.  What appears likely is that Russia will initially rely on Iran and Hezbollah for added ground forces.  It is, however, important to recognize the Islamic State has tens of thousands of fighters in Syria and Iraq, while anti-insurgent campaigns require, at least, ten times the number of troops to suppress, establish, and maintain security. 
 
Russia is unlikely to muster anywhere near the magnitude of ground forces needed to suppress the insurgents, especially since Russia will have to fight pro-Western forces to defend the Assad regime.  The truth is that Russia cannot defend the Assad regime.  If they try to do so by indiscriminately bombing the general population as Assad has done and attack pro-Western forces, Putin and his military leadership will turn themselves into proven war criminal, thus making it impossible for Russia to resolve its grievances with the West under the current leadership. 

With that in mind, the Assad regime needs the rebels to secure territory against IS, but it also needs IS to prevent moderate rebels from solidifying their control over Syrian territory.  Because holding territory undermines the reach of insurgents makes them an easier target for airstrikes, all insurgent groups would be best served if they abandoned control over territory to employ guerilla warfare.  Recognizing the inherent weakness of the rebel factions and the reluctance of Western-backed coalitions to cause collateral damage, the Islamic State and others would be wise to return to their original war against Assad in the territory his regime controls.
 
Unfortunately, the Assad regime, as well as Russia, appears to believe the West can be forced to accept the Assad regime over terrorists.  The collapse of moderate rebels would leave few alternatives, but this will simply give the US an excuse to refocus its attention elsewhere and deal with IS in other ways while Saudi-led nations will continue to sabotage the Assad regime, even if that means supporting extremists.  As the Islamic State is a more imminent threat to Russia and Europe, Europeans may be more likely to accept Assad, but they will not support Assad the war criminal.  By eliminating moderate alternatives, Russia will have no choice but to secure the weak, unpopular Assad regime.

Russian national security interests are at stake in Syria while it has an interest in using the situation to spread its influence into the Middle East via Syria and Iran.  It also has a far greater interest in using the situation in Syria to reestablish relations with the West in the wake of the Ukraine Crisis.  The Putin government may successfully use the Syrian Civil War to help restart NATO-Russian relations, but the elimination of moderate alternatives in Syria will hurt Russia’s primary national security interests.  Vladimir Putin may know how to use the Syrian Civil War to disarm European resistance to Russian dominance, but Bashar al-Assad knows how to use terrorists to entangle Russia.

It will also make it impossible for Russia, the Assad regime, and Iran to cooperate with other Middle Eastern powers.  In addition, Putin will bankrupt Russia.  For Iran, this scenario will undermine the benefits of the Iranian Nuclear Deal.  At best, Iran can hope to see the release of billions in Iranian oil money before the Iranian Nuclear Deal collapses, which may well be the reason Russia is willing and able to provide military assistance to Iran and Syria.  Even if Putin and Assad are willing to accept the consequences, their efforts will only lead to a protracted era of violence, not victory.  
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      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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