Finally managing to break the grip of al-Shabaab, formally the Islamic Courts Union, African Union and Somali troops reclaimed the port city of Barawe, which had served as the de facto capital of the terrorist group. Given 1993 was the last time the key port was under the control of government forces, the recent event is a major milestone. Considering al-Shabaab nearly seized control of the entire country in 2006 and Somalia has served as the poster child for a failed state since the 1991 collapse of its central government, this news is more than welcome.
That said, al-Shabaab has not been eliminated as a threat, nor have the many other regional threats been extinguished, while Somalia will not be a success until it has been rebuilt to a point it can sustain its regained stability. Given the US and Coalition forces poured trillions into both Iraq and Afghanistan in the hopes of stabilizing and rebuilding them, it should be clear that throwing money at nations that have degenerated into war zones and power vacuums is not enough to prevent them from returning to that state once their benefactors grow weary of the financial burden and sacrifice. Unfortunately, any analogy that can be drawn between Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia goes both ways. It should be clear from Somalia that Iraq and Afghanistan can easily degenerate into failed states when facing a serious terrorist threat like the Islamic States. Caught in a classic “damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t” scenario, it is tempting to simply give up on nation building, accept a heightened risk of terrorist attacks, and allow violence to engulf regions of the world. On the other hand, we could learn from the successes that we have had so far and try to find better options.
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Adding to concerns over China’s increasingly aggressive pursuit of its interests, which is evident in ongoing disputes with its neighbors, the so-called Hong Kong Umbrella Rebellion is the strongest repudiation of China’s communist rule since Tiananmen Square. As the Chinese government appears less and less compromising, this latest speed bump in its agenda provides some insight into China’s future. That said, when there is major news in China, a proper analysis must include the impact on neighboring countries.
Looking at India as the second largest representative of the world’s most populous block of countries, it is in direct competition for resources, global investment, and regional influence with China. This inherent competition, which is sure to intensify under the stress of the world’s two most populous nations’ ever-growing needs, translates into a multitude of potential flash points. With fears of the highly lethal African disease Ebola reaching the United States coming to fruition just days ago in Texas, the prospect of another Ebola case in Hawaii is only stocking fears as professional media outlets are trying to chase down the health story of the year. Although the symptoms of Ebola are terrifying and the high mortality rate make it a serious health concern, the United States healthcare system is more than capable of addressing an Ebola outbreak. As long as infected Americans get treatment, doctors will put whatever resources it takes into curing Ebola victims and blunting the spread of the disease.
What is far scarier is the potential of an Ebola outbreak in a densely populated poor country with widespread poverty and a weak healthcare system. One such country is India. Considering our globalized transportation system and the growing threat of globalized terrorism, which includes suicide attacks, transmitting Ebola through either infected individuals or samples of bodily fluids sent to random addresses is a real potential. Democracy is a threat to those who have seized power for themselves or who have grown accustom to government catering to their interests. When threatened, the impulse of the powerful is to compensate for such insecurities by doing whatever it takes to secure their privilege. Whether taking constructive steps like providing benefits to those who might cause them problems or by cracking down on dissenters, the goal is always to make the cost of continued defiance higher than the price of submission.
In general, the emerging strategy of the Communist Chinese government in dealing with the so-called Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong is a two-stage solution. Learning from the Arab Spring Revolutions, the Ukraine Crisis, and other Occupy protests, the reaction of Hong Kong officials to abandon their crackdown on protests out of fears that violence will result in sympathetic support is smart. After all, the real threat to Communist rule is not in Hong Kong where the Chinese government is only beginning to tighten the noose, it is in mainland China, thus the world can expect far harsher, far more widespread crackdowns in mainland China where the world is not watching. In fact, the world is already seeing examples of this strategy in place as known dissenters are already being targeted. Given the news about the Hong Kong protests will eventually circumvent the Great Fire Wall and propagate throughout China, the Communist Party is already seeking to frame that news coverage in such a way that it will not resonate throughout the population of China or Hong Kong. So far, they are utilizing three basic frames that all news of the protests will be explained through. |
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April 2020
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