The Washington Outsider

Hong Kong Protests: How China’s response might affect neighbors India and North Korea

10/4/2014

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Adding to concerns over China’s increasingly aggressive pursuit of its interests, which is evident in ongoing disputes with its neighbors, the so-called Hong Kong Umbrella Rebellion is the strongest repudiation of China’s communist rule since Tiananmen Square.  As the Chinese government appears less and less compromising, this latest speed bump in its agenda provides some insight into China’s future.  That said, when there is major news in China, a proper analysis must include the impact on neighboring countries.  

Looking at India as the second largest representative of the world’s most populous block of countries, it is in direct competition for resources, global investment, and regional influence with China.  This inherent competition, which is sure to intensify under the stress of the world’s two most populous nations’ ever-growing needs, translates into a multitude of potential flash points.  
At the moment Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, appears to comprehend the hazards of allowing conflicts of interests between the two nations to fester until they explode into major confrontations.  This is evident in the efforts of the two leaders to meet face-to-face and resolve the Chushul-Ladakh Border Dispute in late September. 

In the long-term, however, serious conflicts of interest can erode the working relationship between China and India.  Aside from China and India’s ever-growing appetites for natural resources, including basics like potable water and foodstuffs, China’s ties with India’s tradition rival Pakistan, as one major example, presents a potential point of contention.  That is, of course, unless Modi can also build a strong working relationship with Pakistan. 

Conversely, India’s strengthening relationship with the US and other Western countries in a time when American interests are colliding with the rising global power that is China, puts India in direct competition for China’s economic position and status as the region’s most influential country.  Given Russia’s strengthening relationship with China at a time when the West is fighting with Russia over the Ukraine Crisis, India and China could eventually find themselves on opposite sides of a line being drawn to divide the world.

Adding stress to the Chinese-Indian relationship is the issue of democracy.  Where India is a democracy with a fairly dysfunctional government seeking better governance to better serve the interests of the Indian Peoples, China seems increasingly hesitate to embrace the inevitable democratization process as the leadership caters to its interests.  With that in mind, the Hong Kong Umbrella Revolution can be skirted by India in its dealings with China for some time, but events, such as those in Hong Kong, as well as the Arab Spring revolutions, create pressure to address the inherent conflict between communist and democratic countries. 

At the moment, China seems to be courting India by providing economic incentives for cooperation, but a shift in the economic preferences of Western nations that favor India could eventually put China at a disadvantage.  Only by China and India intertwining their economies can any shift in their shared power dynamic be negated.  That said, greater freedom in India will always be a point of contention as the Chinese People crave greater personal autonomy from their government, thus China and India must reach a point of social equilibrium when it comes to affording citizens civil liberties.

That said, China’s heighten tensions with Japan hint at greater strife between China and India should the prevailing mentality of the Chinese leadership persist.  Where China essentially bullied the far weaker, non-US ally Vietnam when China wanted to extract oil from the South China Sea in an area claimed by both nations, the Chinese-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands almost resulted in war.  Thanks to the United State backing Japan’s claims, China was prevented from outright seizing the Islands.

 Unlike India, Japan is both smaller and currently jockeying with Japan for the same position as the world’s second largest economy.  If an Indian economic rise becomes a serious threat to China’s position, China and India could end up entangled in a devastating conflict.  If the West responds in kind by backing its democratic ally, Communist China could eventually find itself facing off with the democracies of the world.

In the short-term, however, the most pressing threat from China’s confrontation with democracy stems from North Korea.  Unfortunately, our knowledge of North Korea’s interworkings largely comes from speculation on what little information the outside world can gleam from inside the world’s most oppressive regime, but we do know Pyongyang is under lockdown, likely due to a serious security risk to the regime.  Like the hobbled North Korean leader, the economy is hurting and the military is falling apart.  For this terribly insecure and overly aggressive country, this means the leadership likely feels increasing pressure to act on its impulses to lash out against the world. 

Factoring into this equation King Jon Un’s apparent mission to prove himself as a deserving ruler,  his questionable understanding of North Korea’s position in the world, and his fear of a coup/invasion, which pushed the military to over train, North Korea would be on the verge of tearing itself apart or declaring war on the world.  In fact, it may well already be in the middle of a coup. 

Because nuclear North Korea is a serious threat, events like the Hong Kong protests could stoke fears among the North’s governing elite.  As China uses tough language to warn the West to stay out of China’s business, North Korea may well see an aggressive China as a sign that China and Russia could welcome the North’s aid, which might include the use of nuclear weapons, in subduing the West and their Asian allies.  Considering, just over a year ago, the world was afraid Israel might provoke a war against Iran in order to force the US to crush Iran’s nuclear program, the North may see the same opportunity in China.

With the Hong Kong protests escalating thanks to growing crowds and backlash from supposed Hong Kong citizens targeting the disruptive, yet peaceful, protesters, China’s response will have consequences today and in the future.  Where President Xi Jinping sells himself as a strong leader, the wrong response can cost China and the rest of the world dearly.  Although the foundation China builds with its neighbors today will determine if Asian powers will be capable of dealing with far more daunting conflicts in the future, China’s relationships with North Korea and Russia in this time of great strife presents China with the opportunity to prevent a potential global catastrophe or lead the world to ruin.

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      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
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      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
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      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
      • Trying to Understand PTSD and Other Trauma-induced Mental Health Issues
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        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
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      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
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        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
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      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
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        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
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      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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