The Washington Outsider

Chemical Weapons, False Flags, and Mouse Traps: Untrustworthy Intelligence

4/14/2017

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The US strike against a Syrian airbase in response to the use of chemical weapons has inspired two kinds of conversations.  Due to the lack of a meaningful Russian response and broader US military intervention against the Assad regime, professional media outlets have turned their childlike attention to the shiny, big bombs being used from Syria to Afghanistan.  Absent irrefutable evidence and the completion of an independent international investigation demonstrating Assad forces were undeniably  responsible for the chemical weapons attack, a significant number of Americans and other Westerners are questioning the legitimacy of the Trump Administration’s actions.  These critics believe someone may have engineered a “false flag” to justify a direct assault on the Assad regime.  Although no one can say which, if any, of the conspiracy theories are correct, it is clear that the US intelligence community is no longer seen as a credible source of information.

Regrettably, rogue elements within America’s national security apparatus and military are known to have repeatedly fabricated evidence and engineered schemes in order to make war more palatable to the American People and discontented populations of countries that have run afoul of the US.  They has also pressed forward with their agendas based on faulty intelligence reports lacking critical details.  Colin Powell’s emotion-based plea for UN to support the invasion of Iraq, because the Saddam regime had wanted nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons can kill lots of people, serves as a notable example.  Utilizing it and the justifiable fear of an expanding US campaign in Syria, the Russian government was able to help further erode trust, in the Trump Administration, i.e. punishment.  As the government, and subsequently the Press, are often the primary sources of information on a number of issues for most people , this leaves the public unable to trust what is true and what is misinformation.  
Furthermore, presumed innocent until proven guilty has long been the basis of the American justice system.  Although not always the case in practice, this aspiration has been ingrained into the thinking of the American People and Americanized populations of the world.  In war, i.e. a state of perpetual insecurity, and outside of civilian life, i.e. a state of security, the need to immediately respond when confronted with any situation that feels threatening compels individuals to make decisions based on a lack of evidence and certainty.  It is a world where everyone is presumed guilty until proven innocent.  The mindset of national security and military officials is that of someone in a perceptual state of war.  In the case of a place like Syria, which is an active war zone, military decisions are, therefore, most likely going to be made on a lack of uncertainty rather than irrefutable evidence, which helps explain why intelligence conclusions are so vague and detail deficit.
 
To boot, the intelligence being used to make decisions over Syria is more likely to be incomplete and come from highly questionable source that cannot be properly vetted due to the circumstances of the war.  Like most scientific evidence, which is incomplete, yet used by lawmakers to shape public policy, the lack of knowns and the introduction of fabricated evidence can be weeded out over time by taking a more systematic, transparent approach.  Unfortunately, this does nothing to address another major problem when trying to identity unanticipated threats and make snap judgments: industry bias.  The US intelligence apparatus and military have spent decades gathering information about countries like Syria in order to analyze and model potential threats.  They have also spent just as much time developing contingency plans for any number of situations that might happen.  
 
When a chemical weapon is detonated, whatever information is immediately available is plugged into the working models of the Syrian conflict then the most likely scenario is identified and the most comparable contingencies are sent to the President or military commander.  The problem is that this approach essentially creates a very extensive and complex mousetrap, which can be triggered by anything that acts like a mouse.  If someone with an agenda wants the US to strike Syria, they simply have to trip the trigger.  If someone within the intelligence community wants to eliminate a treat, they simply have to set in motion events to trigger the trap.  If the mouse wants to disarm the trap, it simply has to find another way to trip the trigger and blame someone else.  More thoughtful decision making can help, but it would require a delay in life threatening decisions that require immediate responses.  Unfortunately, this means military decisions can be less fact-based and more instinct-based, which introduces human error that can cause all sorts of issues.
 
That said, Donald Trump may have acted more responsible than most critics would care to admit.  Unlike the George W. Bush Administration’s military campaign against Iraq, which never demonstrated a nuclear capacity or utilized nuclear weapons, the Assad regime has continually demonstrated a capacity to use chemical weapons and used them when only they could be responsible for their use.  Unlike Iraq, Syria is also a war zone where the US is already active.  Unlike Bush, Trump also severely limited the scope of his response, instead of breaking Assad’s military infrastructure and pursuing an actual invasion.  As for Russia, which showed no such restraint in Georgia and Ukraine, the utilization of Tomahawk missiles, versus aircraft deployed bombs, helped lessen the likelihood of a US-Russia skirmish, which Russia’s entry into the war made an eventuality.  By acting on the likelihood of the Assad regime’s responsibility, Trump immediately punished the use of chemical weapons while diffusing pressure to engage in a broader campaign until more is known.
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      • Should the U.S. Government Help Fund Election Campaigns?
      • On Defunding Political Science Research
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      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
      • Rising Western Acceptance of LGBT Primes Culture Clash
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      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
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      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
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      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
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        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
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        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
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        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
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          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
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      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
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      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
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        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
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      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
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        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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