The Washington Outsider

Chinese, Trump Trade Concessions Are Not Enough To Revive Manufacturing, Job Market.

4/10/2017

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China has offered the Trump Administration trade concessions in order to avert a trade war.  China has agreed to lift a 2003 import ban on American beef, which helps China feed a massive pollution with a growing taste for beef, and allow foreign investors to own a majority stake in Chinese businesses, which helps break Chinese nepotism, yet is also needed to stabilize China’s financial markets.  These alleged concessions would significantly benefit the agricultural sector and the financial services sector of the US economy.  Unfortunately, the agricultural sector does not provide massive numbers of Middle Class jobs while the financial services sector offers high paying, yet relatively, few jobs.  As the trade deficit with countries like China has helped decimate the manufacturing sector, which has traditionally provided a massive number of jobs, these concessions do little to solve America’s beef with China.
 
Because the manufacturing sector demands innovative thinking, large sums of capital, and lots of labor, all of which have long been abundant in the US, it was the perfect vehicle for distributing America’s wealth to the masses. This is also why the manufacturing sector must be the focus of policy shifts.  First, the American People are not against the Chinese People.  China just happens to be the largest nation on Earth with the largest population and the second largest economy.  The size of China alone forces the US, as well as most other nations, to tread carefully when it comes to trade.  Even if Chinese policies provided equal access to Chinese markets, the vast disparities between the Chinese economy and most others place domestic businesses and workforce(s) at a disadvantage.  Under added scrutiny, the aggressive and predatory policies of the oligarchical “Communist” government make China the biggest target for Americans worried about the state of the US economy.  
n theory, a trade war is devastating to an economy, because it creates barriers to trade, thus starving the economy of added economic activity from trade.  Not only do increases in tariffs raise import and export prices, they undermine the sustainability of global production by raising the cost of outsourcing too quickly.  Sharp increases also create a lack of uncertainty, which inhibits consumer spending and capital investment, thus helping to stall and destabilize the economy.  Because growing anti-free trade sentiments are pushing America, and the world, toward a global trade war, there is a pressing need to seriously address trade issues, which many hoped the Trump Administration would do.  Instead of feeding opposition to trade and provoking a dramatic embrace of trade wars, which the American People do not seem to fear, the best course is to turn to diplomacy.  It is necessary to confront the misalignment of the population’s interests and public policy beyond superficial concessions. 
 
The economic interests of trade partners shift very rapidly with the changing nature of the economy, especially in an era defined by democratic uprisings and a pull back from rapid globalization to community-centered thinking.  Because a stable global economy depends on healthy national economies, national economies must be built on industries that serve the local needs of a people with locally plentiful resources that are as local as possible with excess production being used to participate in the global economy.  As such, trade agreements must be recalibrated regularly to reflect shifting economic interests.  This is particularly important when recognizing the geopolitical processes like the resovereignization that is threatening the EU and driving the aggressive nationalist behavior of Russia and China.  In terms of economic policies, this means addressing the economic interests of a nation’s majority and building a diplomatic infrastructure to periodically address shifts in trade relations.

Focusing on the manufacturing sector, trade reform alone will not be enough to secure the manufacturing sector of United States or the manufacturing sectors of other economies.  Looking at the effects of innovation over the last century, advancements in technology and the commoditization of technology have created then destroyed a great number of jobs/financial opportunities.  The new jobs created from technological advances exist to maintain and expand the new technology.  Unfortunately, these technician jobs must be fewer in number, because the technology must produce more with less labor and other costs.  The technicianization process that the manufacturing sector has been undertaking since its inception will soon reach maturity.  At this point, the industry will be comprised mainly of machinery doing the work with a small number of technicians maintaining/operating the equipment and a smaller number of better paid engineers designing what the machines will do.
 
Considering 3D printing, along with innovations in machine vision, i.e. quicker, easier means of inputting data, and the general trend toward more intuitive interfaces as seen in consumer products like tablets, traditional methods used in parts manufacturing, such as injection molding, will soon be outmoded while those doings the work will require fewer skills, thus they will receive a lower pay.  The technology will eventually replace the need for almost all manufacturing methods once researchers develop new methods to print in different mediums, including those that will be stronger and more durable than steal, for small and large products.  In essence, the advancement of 3D printing, as well as most others modern industrial innovations, has simply found a means of doing what was already being done faster and cheaper by further cutting the human component out of the equation, instead of creating new ways of distributing wealth via improving the quality of life for consumers/workers.
 
Because greater productivity demands greater consumption, there will be a contraction in the number of manufacturing businesses and operations, in addition to a massive loss of outmoded jobs, and/or the new high tech manufacturing sector will have to find new customers.  The highly dynamic nature of 3D printing, i.e. the technology can be used to make an ever-expanding range of products, means the former is almost a certainty.  The latter, however, will depend upon the ability of consumers to spend large sums of money, which means a critical mass of well-paying jobs will have to be created in other economic sectors, and expanding economic trade. Advances in science and technology will eventually lead to a future where humans will be able to cheaply engineer and customize products at the molecular level on a massive scale.  What is done with these products will help determine the industries of the future.
 
Given that most people do not have the capacity to understand the science involved in this type of research, e.g. quantum mechanics and quantum electrodynamics, it is unclear how such innovations will translate into jobs for the majority of individuals throughout the world.  Given that the West, especially the United States, has embraced a purist capitalist thinking, small and large manufacturing businesses will have to invest large sums of private capital to upgrade their equipment in order to compete in the global market.  Looking at the most populous nation of the world where demand for products is likely to grow the fastest, China is a Communist country, thus the government is likely to subsidize upgrades while it is already building a modern infrastructure for the high tech future; whereas, the US is behind in infrastructure spending.  As such, the Chinese manufacturing sector has a good chance of increasing its productivity beyond that of the US and providing products to fulfill world demand.
 
The US economy, therefore, requires an economic revolution that cannot be outsourced and does not depend upon increased consumption alone.  Unfortunately, this is not likely to happen as any added economic activity due to advances in technology will be sourced globally under the current trade paradigm.  Elementary market forces dictate increased supply translates into decreased prices.  Consequently, more workers seeking more work translates into decreased wages.  Increased productivity, ongoing increases in population, women entering the work force on a massive scale, increased need for more hours from workers due to income constraints, increased need for multiple incomes due to stagnant wages in the face of economic growth and increased living expenses, increased competition from a globalized job market, and massive job losses due to economic shifts are factors that have and continue to push wages down.  This degenerative cycle needs to be broken.  Unfortunately, it has only been allowed to undermine the mechanisms by which individuals can overcome disparity.
 
Businesses, industries, and economies depend on three kinds of capital: financial, intellectual, and labor.  The investment of financial capital provides businesses with the money they need to open their doors, maintain their operations, and expand as their customer bases grow.  This is why investors and banks are so important.  It is also why the investment of financial capital is rewarded with either a share of a business or interest payments.  The need for the investment of intellectual and labor capital is not, however, always appreciated or properly rewarded.  To restructure the economy to benefit average Americans, intellectual and labor capital need to be cultivated.  Over the past few decades, the financial sector of the economy has been a persistent bright spot, in part, because policymakers crafted policies to cultivate financial capital.  One such policy has been a reduced capital gains tax, which offers a window into ways labor and intellectual capital can also be cultivated..  
 
For average American investors, a lower rate for capital gains tax serves as a long-term incentive to invest their money in order to ensure their financial future.  It helps them build wealth for retirement while fueling the continued economic growth of the country.  Because stock markets afford individuals a convenient vehicle for investment, versus directly risking their savings in a local business venture, most people invest in the national and global economies through a 401K retirement plan, an IRA, mutual funds, bonds, CDs, and other financial instruments. This means that money is funneled into investments that have more stringent reporting requirements, with the greatest benefits and risks going to those who invest in segments expected to grow the fastest. The benefit to the economy is a readily available, broad base source of capital that can be used to expand economic activities on Wall Street and on Main Street.  
 
Unfortunately, the financial sector does not employ a great deal of labor compared to the greatly diminished manufacturing sector; a vibrant financial sector does not directly create many jobs. Consequently, steering too much money into the financial sector may hurt the economy as a whole.  After all, it diverts money away from the economic activities that directly benefit most Americans.  Growing economic disparity, stagnating and shrinking wages, and lackluster job creation as the capital gains tax has been cut hints at the validity of this argument.  People need well-paying jobs to sustain strong consumer spending, i.e. the lifeblood of the economy, and build their investment portfolios, i.e. get access the benefits of economic growth and supply the economy with capital, i.e. while enjoying a comfortable lifestyle.  When people lose their ability to both afford a comfortable lifestyle and invest for their futures, the economy is in trouble. 
 
From the 1970′s until about 2008, average income Americans were able to compensate for diminishing wages and lost financial opportunities by working longer hours, living on multiple incomes, decreasing family size, forgoing certain luxuries, relying on state support, and, in the case of the growing poor classes, forgoing necessities, thus ultimately hurting themselves in the future.  Today’s economy is built on increasing returns to those who can afford to be investors. For wealthier Americans, a lower tax rate for unearned income is not an incentive to invest.  It essentially affords them a windfall for money they would have invested anyway.  This translates into a situation where an excess of capital is driven toward investments with the highest payouts, thus creating economic bubbles.  In turn, Wall Street firms and affluent individuals have been increasingly able to use extremes in the markets to siphon capital out of the economy, especially with their use of exotic financial instruments.
 
Consequently, U.S. policymakers should cap the benefits of the lower capital gains tax rate, so it can act primarily as an incentive for middle-income households. Paying down the National Debt is one option for spending the increased revenue resulting from limiting capital gains, while shifting the tax savings associated with reducing the capital gains tax discount is another.  Cutting overall tax rates would be nice, but governments might consider subsidizing another type of capital that would drive growth where it is most needed, i.e. intellectual capital. Innovations and the spread of new technology can create good paying jobs by sparking novel industries.  Coupled with improved patent laws, offering a tax discount on par with current capital gains tax deductions for royalty payments on novel technologies and other innovations would make them far more valuable. By making patents and other intellectual property more valuable, financial capital would be steered toward innovation, thus ultimately cultivating new industries and jobs. 
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        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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