The Washington Outsider

Low Oil prices, Islamic State, Mahdi Army, and Ebola means Saudi Arabia and others must prioritize

10/18/2014

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For drivers with strained budgets, the sight of falling gas prices is truly a miracle while there is no better treatment for the shellshock of last winter’s frigid weather than lower heating costs.  With that in mind, the collapse of energy prices has consequences that reach far and wide.  For many, lower energy prices are a boon, yet others look at those falling prices at the pump and see a market crash threatening their economic stability.

Where oil and natural gas producers could be seriously hurt if oil stays too low, too long, the world should expect the alternative energy sector to face a similar problem when the long-term savings of wind and solar equipment can no longer compete with the low upfront costs of carbon-based fuels.

Aside from decreasing energy costs of consumers in need of extra dollars to spend as the US economy struggles with growing economic disparity, the collapse of energy prices also has international benefits.  For Russia, diminished oil revenue clearly compounds the issues of its recent economic problems.  At the moment, however, this is largely seen as a positive development due the efforts of the West to punish Russia with economic sanctions for its involvement in the Ukraine Crisis.

On the other hand, the impact of depressed oil prices in the Middle East is more of a negative.  Where less oil revenue means official corruption and misallocation of public funds in oil rich countries in the era of the Arab Spring Revolutions becomes more noticeable and less tolerable, which is beneficial to the region over time, smaller national budgets equals less willingness to spend on new priorities.
Given the national and regional security interests of Middle Eastern countries has been neglected in favor of relying on outside help and ignoring problems, efforts to take on globalized terrorism, including the Islamic State, could be hampered in the near future.

Looking at Saudi Arabia, which is the largest producer of the powerful OPEC oil cartel and the government most willing to spend on regional security, the Kingdom may have over 700 billion dollars in reserve, but a lack of economic diversity and overreliance on socialist programs to provide for its People put the regional leader at risk. 

The Saudi government needs 83.60 dollars a barrel in oil revenue to support its budget,  which has only been growing, yet its ability to produce a barrel of oil for somewhere between five and ten dollars , or lower, a barrel means there is little the Kingdom can do in the interim to increase its profits from oil.  As such, Saudi Arabia must mitigate the impact of lower oils prices by decreasing waste, abuse, and fraud in its budget wherever it can find it while it must seek out smarter ways of prioritizing spending.

As the Middle East is in an era of terrible instability, the Kingdom must also avoid budget cuts that deprive those dependent upon the government for their needs until those needs can be provided for by private sector development.  Building an economy capable of providing for a population’s needs takes time.  Of course, the heightened threat of terrorism also requires increased spending in order to deal with national and regional security crisis.

Looking at Nigerian government’s willingness to accept a ceasefire deal with terrorist group Boko Haram, it is obvious governments feel pressured to “keep the peace” and avoid necessary confrontations when terrorists are capable of fending off the national army as they terrorize the Peoples of the region.  This incentive is particularly strong when a weak nation, such as Nigeria, is faced with a crisis like Ebola.  Given Middle Eastern countries have tended to opt for complacency when it comes to terrorist groups favorable to their interests, there is a very real concern that economic pressure, as well as potential threats like Ebola and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, will break the momentum of newly mounted efforts to address terrorism.

Fortunately, the Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia has been increasingly supportive of efforts to deal with the Sunni terrorist groups the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.  With the threat of Shia rebels in neighboring Yemen, Saudi Arabia may be forced to defend itself and its neighbors against threats other than the Islamic State.  Just as turkey faces backlash for failing to support Kurds against the Islamic State and Iraq’s Shia majority risks provoking further sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites, the Kingdom must be careful not to enflame additional unrest in the region by overreacting or inappropriately reacting in an polarizing manner.

Unfortunately, the Middle East is stuck in a vicious cycle of instability.  Civil unrest and extremism are fueled by a lack of responsive government, yet governments under siege tend become more defensive. 
In accordance, they often tend to react by spending more on efforts to corral unrest and less on actual security threats as well as economic development.  The added effort to protect leadership interests above all else shifts the focus away from what their Peoples’ needs and wants.  Moreover, less oil revenue is sure to make it harder to spend money in the Middle East on civil investments that can help break this degenerative cycle while the latest war on terrorism may be derailed just as it was getting started.

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    • Governance >
      • Retooling the Grand Strategy of the International Community >
        • Recalibrating Our Foreign Policy Vision for a New Middle East
        • How the US Should Engage Political Revolt in the Middle East
      • The Fundamentals of Proper Government in the Middle East and North Africa
      • Implementation of Public Policy: Issues of Theory and Practice >
        • What Are Commonsense Regulations?
        • Should Public Health Be a Priority to the Governments of the World?
        • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
        • Is National Security More Important Than Civil Rights?
        • Should the Government's First Priority Be to Protect Secrets or to Proactively Give Citizens Information?
      • The Sequestered US Government Needs a Therapist
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      • An Essay on the Role of Government: Why Each Generation Must Define Democracy for Itself
      • Democracy and the Narrowing Power Elite
      • Assessing the Limits of Democracy
      • Do Americans value freedom?
      • Belittling Our Political Leaders
      • Defining "Liberal" and "Conservative"
      • Framing Issues Properly is an Important Political Tool >
        • Assessing US Elections Part I: Framing Issues Properly is an Important Political Tool
        • Assessing US Elections Part II: Focusing on the Economic Frame
        • Assessing US Elections Part III: Looking at the National Security and Military Frame
        • Assessing US Elections Part IV: Focusing on the Foreign Policy Frame
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      • Voting in Mid-term Elections: The Importance of the Congressional Vote
      • The Role of the Media in Politics >
        • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • How the People Are Lost in the Extremes of 'Right' and 'Left' in Politics
      • Should One's Faith Influence a Citizen's Vote?
      • Should the U.S. Government Help Fund Election Campaigns?
      • On Defunding Political Science Research
    • Worldview >
      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
      • Rising Western Acceptance of LGBT Primes Culture Clash
      • The Need for Wisdom Beyond the Numbers
      • Perceptions of the United States
      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
    • Human Nature >
      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
      • Trying to Understand PTSD and Other Trauma-induced Mental Health Issues
      • Exploring Human Emotion >
        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
      • What is a Redneck? Understanding Different Cultures and Thinking
    • Economics >
      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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