The Washington Outsider

Obama’s Legacy and the Rush to Solve Problems with Iran, Syria, Russia, China, Cuba, and Myanmar 

6/2/2015

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As the final days of the George W. Bush Administration approached, the State Department abruptly shifted gears from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in a bid to save the legacy of the Presidency.  Just as the Bush Administration failed to solve the decades-old conflict, the Obama Administration is scrambling to cement its legacy by engaging in similar misguided policy pushes.  From the Iranian Nuclear Deal to a restart of US-Cuban relations, the Obama Administration may well be setting itself up for failure by undertaking an ambitious foreign policy agenda, especially when considering all of the emerging crises throughout the world.  

The foreign policy initiatives of the Obama Administration can only be successful if the parties involved want and need them to be successful.  Quite frankly, the end of a Presidency is what might be called an “artificial timeline.”  Forcing progress in order to meet that timeline only sets the diplomatic process up for failure while leaving any success to be reversed by the next Administration.  Looking at the US-Cuban diplomatic reset, the reality that the Castro regime is dying and politically unpopular could mean quick progress opens up the island nation to accelerated political and cultural changes.  
On the other hand, Myanmar, which chose to embrace the democratization process early in the Obama Administration, has faced serious political and human rights issues that have largely been left to fester.  When it comes to the persecution of the Rohingya minority, it is particularly evident that the Obama Administration has not followed through with its outreach efforts.  Addressing the failures of the Myanmar transition from a closed-society ruled by a military dictatorship to a progressing ill-democratic nation would help ease criticism in regards to initiatives like the US-Cuban diplomatic reset.

Furthermore, the political world needs to understand the one who is most willing and able to leave the negotiating table has the greatest leverage.  In the case of the Iranian Nuclear Deal, the Obama Administration’s apparent desperation to make a deal empowers the Iranian government, even though international sanctions have put the Iranian government in a far more desperate situation.  President Obama has repeatedly said bombing Iran will not prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but the same is true of the potential nuclear deal that is in the works.  Both choices will only delay Iran’s progress.

It is easy to favor the former over the latter when taking into account Iran’s assistance in the war on the Islamic State.  Iranian President Hassan Rouhani may well be sincere in his efforts to broker peace between the West and Iran, but he only serves as the executor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s regime and it appears Khamenei’s only goal is to free his government of sanctions, not change how his government operates.  That said, growing efforts by US allies in the Middle East, which do not look upon Iran favorably, to tackle their own regional security, are steadily turning Iran’s help into more of a political liability.

Unless Iran is willing to accept full transparency of its nuclear program, Western interests will not be served by a nuclear deal with Iran.  Unless Iran is going to stop undermining its neighbors by supporting groups like Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis, even a nuclear deal will not be enough for the US to ignore these trespasses.  Certainly, the Obama Administration should seek to keep Iran at the negotiating table in order to freeze the status quo, but rushing to sign a nuclear deal with only lead to a bad deal.  It will also undermine the necessity of the Khamenei regime to behave, thereby deleveraging the Obama Administration as negotiations progress.

Unfortunately, Iran’s connection to the Putin Regime cannot be overlooked, especially since the Obama Administration is seeking to cooperate with Russia over the Iranian-backed Houthi Rebellion in Yemen and Iran.  Just as China’s provocative stance in the South China Sea appears to be following the example of Russia in the Ukraine Crisis, it is wise to assume Russian-allies Iran and Syria are taking a similar underhanded approach in dealing with IS.  Where Putin becomes increasingly aggressive when he feels confident he can do as he pleases and recoils when his action are confronted, Iran may well be following a similar pattern.

The real concern is how this affects the fight against the Islamic State.  Recent news of the terrorist group’s advance toward Aleppo and the Turkish border was quickly followed by renewed accusations by pro-Western rebels who believe the Assad regime is cooperating with the Islamic State.  These fears can be easily be dismissed as a conspiracy theory, but the truth is that the Assad regime and the Islamic State would be wise to target their common enemies before engaging each other.  

Fighting between the Islamic State and the Assad regime, however, would be beneficial to Western interests and the Middle Eastern rivals of Iran as it would weaken all of their enemies.  Given the Assad regime is an ally of Iran and Russia, this perverse counter strategy would serve to advance Russian interests while making the West more dependent on Russia and Iran.  Similarly, stoking conflict between US-Asian allies like Japan and South Korea would help to further Chinese and Russian interests in subduing American power.

There are those who go so far as to blame the Obama Administration for all of the crises around world, because he has not been “strong enough” or willing to fight.  The United States spent more than a decade in Iraq fighting an unsuccessful, easily reversed ground war against militant insurgents.  Launching a ground war against the highly skilled Islamic State will do little except weaken the US in the face of escalating Russian and Chinese aggression.  Unfortunately, the irrational, unrelenting the criticism the President hears on a daily basis pressures him to quickly accomplish big things, which pushes him to set himself up for failure.

In truth, the big accomplishments of most Presidents have unraveled as history tests their faults.  With all of the crises in the world and all that must be done by a US President, it is shortsighted to believe big successes always define the legacy of a US President.  It is the President’s ability to cope and properly address issues that matters.  Going back to the South China Sea, China has always sought to maintain stability and balance while China has more to lose in a conflict with the US and its neighbors.  Consequently, China is where President Obama must focus his diplomatic efforts in order to confront and resolve the issues driving emerging crises.  

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      • Retooling the Grand Strategy of the International Community >
        • Recalibrating Our Foreign Policy Vision for a New Middle East
        • How the US Should Engage Political Revolt in the Middle East
      • The Fundamentals of Proper Government in the Middle East and North Africa
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      • Democracy and the Narrowing Power Elite
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      • Do Americans value freedom?
      • Belittling Our Political Leaders
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        • Assessing US Elections Part I: Framing Issues Properly is an Important Political Tool
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        • Assessing US Elections Part IV: Focusing on the Foreign Policy Frame
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        • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • How the People Are Lost in the Extremes of 'Right' and 'Left' in Politics
      • Should One's Faith Influence a Citizen's Vote?
      • Should the U.S. Government Help Fund Election Campaigns?
      • On Defunding Political Science Research
    • Worldview >
      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
      • Rising Western Acceptance of LGBT Primes Culture Clash
      • The Need for Wisdom Beyond the Numbers
      • Perceptions of the United States
      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
    • Human Nature >
      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
      • Trying to Understand PTSD and Other Trauma-induced Mental Health Issues
      • Exploring Human Emotion >
        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
      • What is a Redneck? Understanding Different Cultures and Thinking
    • Economics >
      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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