Power Struggle: Beyond the Recapturing of Iraq

With US airstrikes, Kurdish forces, and the Iraqi military pushing back the Islamic State, it is important to look ahead at what challenges Iraq will be facing as the Sunni extremists are subdued.  Although the Iraqi military and Kurdish forces are learning to cooperate in their fight against the Islamic State, the thoroughly necessary arming of the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, after the failures of the Iraqi military and the political system to initially prevent the rise of the Islamic State inside Iraq, means there is a major power shift in Iraq underway.  Unfortunately, the unwillingness of those already in power to respect and embrace such a change often leads to power struggles, i.e. conflicts that are likely to turn violent in a war torn region.  That said, violence and division are not the only possible outcomes, especially if all Iraqis are given a chance to voice their opinions on what Iraq should look like.

Saddam Hussein’s Sunni Ba'ath party brutally abused Iraq’s Shiite majority and the Kurds then the Shiites disenfranchised the Sunnis and the Kurds, to a lesser degree, once they took control of Iraq.  As the US and France are arming the Kurds and the Shiites, it is necessary to ask how the Kurds will break this vicious cycle, especially if the Shiite majority expects Iraq to return to the status quo.  Simply because the Islamic States has been eliminated as a threat does mean Iraq will even be capable of continuing on as a single country.  Looking at the dynamics of the Iraqi military and the Kurdish forces, the relationship appears to be more akin to two partner militaries of two separate nations with shared security interests.  Taking their cues from the military, the politicians need to recognize cooperation with the Kurds, as well as the Sunnis, is more necessary than guarding against the potential breakup of the Iraq state.  Consequently, all influencers in Iraq need to help shape a future for Iraq rooted in a power arrangement that serves the new realities on the ground and avoids catastrophic conflicts by balancing the interests of all Iraqis.