The Washington Outsider

Putin’s Chess Game Unfolds With Kerch Strait Incident: A Defining Moment For Trump

11/26/2018

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​Russia has attacked and seized three Ukrainian warships that were traveling from Odesa on the Black Sea to Mariupol in the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait.  The incident took place near Crimea, which Russia forcefully annexed from Ukraine in 2014.  While the Strait is considered the shared territorial waters of both nations, according to a 2003 treaty on the Azov-Kerch defined area of water, and Ukrainian officials have said their ships were operating in line with international law, Russia has blamed the incident on a Ukrainian conspiracy to provoke an international incident.  Russia recently completed the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects the Russian Federal to the annexed Crimea.  Russia appears to using a tanker to block the Strait, thus suggesting the incident may have been part of an effort to protect the bridge.  An incident of this nature would normally be a bilateral issue, but the Ukraine Crisis, the fact that the incident revolves around freedom of navigation, and Russia’s status as a world power make the Kerch Strait Incident an international concern that could easily spiral out of control.   
​Russia’s seizure of the Ukrainian ships, whether or not their transit through the Kerch Strait was actually provocative, serves as yet another example of Russia responding to an alleged aggression with a disproportionately heavy-handed response.  It is a pattern that was observed in the preclude to its 2008 war on Georgia and throughout the Ukraine Crisis.  At the very least, this is an example of Russia overreacting to a situation the government of Vladimir Putin perceives to be a threat to its interests.  Recognizing the fact that the Ukraine Crisis remains unresolved, this incident could easily be a pretext for a much larger military campaign against Ukraine.  After Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine, the Putin government engineered a prolonged pro-Russian insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.  Having failed to predict the US and its NATO allies would sustain massive sanctions against Russia, along with a devastating collapse in energy prices, Russia turned to Syria in support of the then-faltering Assad regime, thus compelling the West to shift away from the Ukraine Crisis and focus on the Syrian Civil War.  The Kerch Strait Incident could be the next move in Putin’s plans to reassert political control over Ukraine.
 
While the Kerch Strait Incident could prove to be an defining moment for all members of the UN Security Council and NATO, all eyes will be on the United States.  European nations are most threatened by Russia’s domineering behavior due to their proximity to Russia, but it is the United States that will have to lead the global response to Russia’s continuing rogue state behavior in order to protect freedom of navigation throughout the world and to safeguard the world’s nations from arbitrary invasion.  It will be a defining moment for current UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is taking point for the Trump Administration.  For President Donald Trump, it will also be a defining moment.  His response could even determine his legacy.  So far, Trump’s response has been tepid, at best.  One might even characterize it as an attempt to ignore the Russian hostilities.  Like President Barack Obama, who initially shied away from confronting Russia, it will be Trump’s prolonged response that determines whether or not the Putin government is encouraged to engage in future hostilities or punished for bullying its neighbors.
 
Complicating the US and global response to the Kerch Strait Incident is Ukraine’s response.  In the wake of the situation, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko asked lawmakers to institute marital law, which they obliged.  It is a move that could mean the curtailing of civil liberties and democratic freedoms.  With Ukrainian elections only months away and corruption running rampant in the former Soviet state, much like Russia, the potential power play feeds into Russian conspiracy theories, thus casting doubt on the true motivations of Proshensko and the credibility of Ukraine’s case against Russia.  That said, there is a vast difference between propping up the Proshenko regime and defending international norms.  There is a difference between securing corrupt governments and pushing back against governments that show a lack of respect for the sovereignty of other nations and democratic freedoms of a People.  Whatever agenda Proshenko might be pursuing, the US and the rest of International Community need to send a clear message to Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin must not be allowed to use Russian power to pursue his imperialist ambitions unopposed.
 
In 1981, Muammar Gaddafi attempted to claim the Gulf of Sidra as his own by drawing a “line of death” across the Mediterranean Sea.  President Ronald Reagan ordered the US Navy to conduct a freedom of navigation patrol.  The US ended up shooting down two of Gaddafi’s MiG-23s, but Reagan sent a powerful message to the world: the US would not allow any government to use intimidation to disrupt global travel and commerce.  President Obama’s response to the Ukraine Crisis was nowhere near as dramatic or intimidating, but prolonged international sanctions showed Putin that there would be consequences for violating the borders of other nations and international laws.  The consequences of a war with Russia are far greater than those of a war with Libya, yet that is precisely why the US needs to stand up to the Putin government.  It is widely believed that the Putin government has damaging information on Donald Trump while the President faces the prospects of Congressional investigations following the 2018 Midterms.  The President is weak against Russia.  Recognizing Russian attempts to hack the US political system, it would seem Putin’s chess game is unfolding as he planned.  It will be up to President Trump to decide whether or not he allows Putin to mute the US response.
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      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
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      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
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      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
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        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
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        • Recognizing Abuse
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        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
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        • It’s Just Sex?
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      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
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      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
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        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
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        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
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        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
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      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
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      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
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      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
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        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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