Putin’s Legacy: Russia to Become Regional Power Instead of Global Power

With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to amass forces along the Russian-Ukrainian border in preparation for a potential armed invasion of Ukraine and Western powers poised to intensify economic sanctions against Russia, the mechanisms are in place to transform Russia from a world power, which participants in world events and sees its interests largely addressed, back into a regional power that indirectly affects global events.  In truth, Western NATO countries would be very unlikely to use force in order to respond to a Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory.  The West would, however, be forced to isolate Russia for a protracted period, thus shutting it out of the International Community and the many benefits it offers, while long-term relations between Russian and the rest of the world would take decades to heal instead of years.

Strategically, the cost-benefit analysis of a Russian attack on Ukrainian territory and forces fighting pro-Russian separatists favors de-escalation on behalf of Putin.  Unfortunately, the domination of Ukraine is a point of pride for Putin and support for rebels in Ukraine is an issue of patriotic duty for Russian nationalists.  As such, Russian leadership is being motivated by emotion and restrained by logic.  This means Putin needs a resolution to the Ukrainian Crisis that satisfies more than just the economics of the situation.  A slow manipulation of Ukraine’s political system and economy would serve Putin’s ambitions, yet an armed invasion of Ukraine would do more to satisfy the special interests that appear to have leashed Russia’s most powerful leader.  Of course, both options come at great costs for the Russian People and government, thus the better option is for Putin to manufacture a scenario where he can save face.  One option may be to offer separatists amnesty in Russia or newly annexed Crimea.  Certainly, Crimea will be a constant reminder of Russia’s deceit, especially for Ukrainians, yet transforming Crimea into a buffer state for pro-Russian rebels would help ease tensions with the West and save Ukraine from a war with Russia.

Ironically, the supposed gain of Putin’s influence over Ukraine was the reestablishment of Russian influence.  Just as support for Armenia over Azerbaijan in their territorial dispute over the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh Republic would afford Russia greater influence over its neighbors, a takeover of Ukraine would do nothing for Russian influence on a global scale.  In fact, Europe’s ties to Ukraine make any gains a negative as such behavior from Russia can only be seen as threatening.  Now that the world has been alarmed by the Ukrainian Crisis, Russia’s efforts to reestablish its old sphere of influence are of concern to the International Community, thus the West will only intensify efforts to disrupt those ambitions.  Russia may have the choice to attack Ukraine and take weak measures like banning the importing of Western agricultural goods, which undermines Western businesses and harms Russian consumers to the benefit of Western/global consumers who could see lower prices thanks to reduced global demand, but Russia faces a future of diminishing global influence as Putin attempts to force himself onto the unwilling.