The Washington Outsider

Russia “Simulates” Attack On US Ship: Will US Confront Russia or Focus on China?

4/14/2016

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Two Russian Sukhoi SU-24 warplanes have engaged in what is being called a “simulated attack” on the USS Donald Cook.  This may well be the most threatening close encounter between the two world powers since Russian forces began to undertake increasingly provocative missions against Western countries in response to the Ukraine Crisis. This incident, of course, comes ahead of the first NATO, Russian Council meeting in almost two years.  Just as the Russian Navy deployed ships off the coast of Australia during the 2014 G20 Summit, where Vladimir Putin awkwardly embraced Barack Obama, the current incident was likely a show of dominance.
 
Like the November 2015 incident when Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 “Fencer” fighter jet, however, Putin’s constant impulse to show his dominance by violating boundaries is going to eventually force a reaction. If not, a mistake will be made, which could result in harm to US forces, and a military response will be guaranteed.  Although Putin seeks to discourage Westerners from further confronting Russia over the Ukraine Crisis and deviating from his lead on Syria, these types of provocations alert Westerners to the threat of Putin.  That said, Putin also likely sees the growing risk of a conflict between the US and China as an opportunity to test his limits.
Thanks to the deployment of fighter jets in the disputed Paracel Island chain, Beijing has revealed its effort to build artificial islands with military infrastructure is more than just a means to legitimize its claims over the resource-rich waters of the South China Sea.  It is a military buildup intended to enforce China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and beyond.  Aside the US military responding in kind, Asian nations are positioning themselves to respond once a decision by the international arbitration court is reached on territorial claims across the South China Sea.  The aggregate result is escalating tensions and an increased likelihood of a major conflict with China.
 
On the Chinese front, developments in the South China Sea Crisis and the crescendoing restarted of the Korean War are fostering animosity between US-aligned nations and China.  On the Russian front, the Ukraine Crisis and Russian support of the Assad regime in the Syrian Civil War are driving the US, Europe, and the Middle East to treat Russia as an enemy.  What Vladimir Putin’s appears to believe is that the US will not risk conflict with Russia as well as China.  In other words, the US will either chose to confront China or avoid conflict all together. The US would like to avoid armed conflict, but Putin’s impulse to dominate is making a US-Russian armed conflict inevitable. 
 
Furthermore, just as the integrity of international law and norms are threatened by Russia’s seizure of Crimea in the case of the Ukraine Crisis, the integrity of international maritime Law and norms is also threatened by Chinese policies designed to circumvent the rules.  At stake is the ability to travel freely through the South China Sea without fear of Chinese interference or attack.  For South China Sea countries, their national security, territorial integrity, unsettled claims to a wealth of natural resources, and very sovereignty is threatened by China’s dominance.
 
The biggest problem is that Beijing relies on China’s extensive history to legitimize its territorial claims.  As such, what Beijing considers Chinese territory appears to greatly depend on what points in history are most convenient.  Considering Beijing’s claims could include China’s neighbors, such as the Koreas, and a large part of Russian territory, the Chinese government’s long-term agenda could be very detrimental to the Peoples within these lands.  An armed conflict with the US would be problematic for China, even if it managed to garner the support of Russia. 
 
Meanwhile, China cannot afford to sever long-term economic ties with the International Community.  Beijing has been actively entangling itself in the economies of the world from Africa to South America, from Europe to Russia through investments and massive spending.  While this may earn Beijing some influence that influence will evaporate just as quickly as US influence does when its partners find US support is inconvenient.  Beijing is attempting to expand its global reach and its borders, yet its failings at home during its economic crisis also breeds civil unrest that would be magnified by war. 
 
Where a war of attrition with strategic periods of aggression would help China slowly consume much of Asia, the US and its Asian allies are already alarmed by what is relatively mild Chinese aggression.  If China become too aggressive in its claims or continues its current decades-old strategy of attrition, a thoroughly destructive armed conflict with the US and its Asian allies is a guarantee.  As such, Beijing has every interest to both end the current tensions and avoid a broader conflict by abandoning whatever agenda it is implementing. 
 
To China’s credit, it has taken steps to deescalate potential conflict by ratcheting down tensions with Vietnam, for example, over the Hai Yang Shi You 981 oil rig it towed into disputed waters in 2014.  More policies decisions like this one are needed to ensure all of the issues provoking this regional conflict do not result in armed conflict.  Recognizing the artificial islands would best serve a defensive strategy and China’s military is best suited to operate domestically, it appears the Chinese may be seeking a deterrent against armed conflict.
 
China does not appear to want an armed conflict with the US or its neighbors, especially in the wake of its massive economic crisis, or risk sparking a devastating third world war, which Russia may have been trying to instigate, and nuclear war.  Since the Ukraine Crisis, as well as the Russian intervention Crisis in Syria, Chinese leadership appears to believe the US is more willing to risk armed conflict.  In asserting Chinese interests and influence, it was presuming the US would not risk an armed conflict with China or Russia.  That assumption has been proven invalid.
 
With that in mind, the US is not necessarily trying to pick a fight with China or even single out China.  In his book, “Beyond the Age of Innocence,” former-Singapore Ambassador to the UN Kishore Mahbubani discussed America’s willingness to subsidize global security and enforce international law.  He pointed out that the US would even use its military might to intervene against a neighboring ally like Canada, if it tried to block international waters.  What Beijing needs to do is candidly engage its neighbors about its intentions and find ways to resolve the underlying territorial disputes in play before a major armed conflict arises.  Russia needs to do the same.  
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      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
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      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
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      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
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      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
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        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
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          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
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        • It’s Just Sex?
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      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
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      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
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        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
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      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
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      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
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      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
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        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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