With exploding violence in Ukraine capturing the world’s attention, the European Union has already agreed to impose sanctions on those Ukrainian officials responsible for the violence while the US is considering similar measures. First, sanctions are instruments capable of exerting long-term pressure on governments; they are not necessarily effective in the short-term. Second, the targeting of leaders helps send a message, yet it makes it far more difficult for them to let go of power and leave their home countries, if a peace agreement demands such concessions.
Third, the violence in Ukraine is driven by pro-Russian policies, thus action by America would essentially turn a violent crackdown by an overreacting government into an international issue. Given that during the Arab Spring Revolutions, the US was idle when Saudi Arabia and other American allies, who used heavy-handed violent tactics to quell unrest, one-side action by the US would only feed the Russian argument that America is hypocritical as it is doing the same as Russia; therefore, Russia is further incentivized to pressure the Ukrainian government to continue supporting the pro-Russian policies that sparked the violence in the first place. If the International Community has a role in the Ukrainian internal conflict, the US and EU must seek to collaborate with Russia in order to pressure the Yanukovych government to respect the rights of peaceful protestors and avoid violent clashes. Given Putin’s recent pursuit of soft power options, doing so would either force Russia to help end the violence in Ukraine or undermine Russia’s diplomatic position relative to the US, if Putin refused to cooperate. Moreover, sanctions may not be the best option as their effectiveness is weak and they encourage an antagonistic dynamic with Russia when Putin needs to see an international incentive to discourage Ukrainian violence.
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April 2020
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