The Washington Outsider

Trump Orders US Withdrawal From Syria, Afghanistan: Is It Really A Terrible Policy Shift?

12/21/2018

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​President Donald Trump has added another chapter in the erratic history of US foreign policy by abruptly ordering a full and rapid withdrawal of US troops from Syria as well as a partial drawdown of US forces in Afghanistan.  Where details on the sporadically-decided Syria withdrawal have yet to be solidified, the Afghanistan drawdown will involve approximately half the number of US troops fighting in the nearly two decades long conflict.  It will likely pave the way for a full withdrawal.  Both decisions were apparently made by the President with little input from his advisers and against their advice.  Experts from across the political spectrum fear disorderly and hastily arranged withdrawals will lead to a resurgence of the Islamic State in Syria as well as a resurgence of the Taliban insurgency and terrorists factions like Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.  Such developments could, in turn, further destabilize the entire region, create a massive safehaven for violent extremists, and open a corridor to the world dominated by terrorists.  At the very least, it means the US is ceding direct influence over critical geopolitical issues and global security.
​Although the vast majority of military, national security, and foreign policy experts appear to agree that Trump’s foreign policy pivot is likely to be disastrous, it is wise to look beyond conventional wisdom.  President Barack Obama had pledged to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.  He attempted to orchestrate a responsible withdrawal by deploying a massive surge of troops in an effort to stabilize Afghanistan before he began his drawdown, but he never actually ended the Afghanistan War.  Adding credibility to the concerns of experts, Obama did largely end the Iraq War, which played a major role in the rise of the Islamic State.  Obama then reluctantly waded into a regional conflict against the Islamic State that encompassed the Syrian Civil War.  After years of counter-terrorism operations and investment, the fear is that a sudden withdrawal of US troops will allow the Islamic State to return.  It would certainly make it more difficult for the US to respond to a critical threat and gather the intelligence needed to launch effective airstrikes.  It would also allow the likes of the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia to assert greater influence over the region, which could undermine America’s global influence.    
 
It is, of course, always wise to question the conventional wisdom.  The experts may intimately know the crucial facts and have well-developed understandings of the situation in both Syria and Afghanistan, but it is not wise to thoughtlessly accept the opinions of any experts, especially since most experts often disagree and their conclusions are subject to error.  Not only do all experts also suffer from professional and industry bias, they can only offer their subjective perspectives on the issues in play.  Their expertise simply means they are better informed than causal observers and they have the ability to better answer analytical questions.  More importantly, public policy is not just the product of policy experts.  It is also the product of elected representatives and the will of the People.  Withdrawal from both Syria and Afghanistan could well be a sound public policy.  Even if it is not, the American People, who control government through their elected officials, have the power and right to decide public policy.  The role of policy experts is to help the American People understand the implications of policy decisions and and craft policies options that allow the will of the American People to be fulfilled.  A majority of the American People have long wanted to end the Afghanistan War while they nor their representatives authorized war in Syria.  Quite frankly, the US government has shown a great deal of indifference toward the will of the American People when it comes to war policy.  
 
With that in mind, it is true the likes of Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime stand to benefit from a US withdrawal in both Syria and Afghanistan.  A withdrawal of US forces would enable Russia and Iran to bolster their allies and crush their opponents, which the US helps protect.  Turkey, which is a NATO member often sharing a contentious relationship with its allies, would like to see a US withdrawal from Syria, because it wants to subjugate the Kurds.  The presence of US forces makes it far too risky for Turkey to launch a full-scale attack on the Kurdish People's Protection Units, commonly referred to as the YPG, and other Kurdish factions.  A US withdrawal would, however, also hurt these beneficiaries, if it meant a resurgence of terrorists and insurgents.  The Kurdish Peshmerga were, for example, the most effective fighting force against the Islamic State in Iraq.  If not for them, Iraq would have fallen to IS.  Even if Russia, Iran, Turkey, and other beneficiaries could ban together to fill the power vacuum the US occupies, they likely could not muster enough forces to adequately police the areas they hope to capture for themselves, especially if America’s allies cannot sustain their positions without US engagement.  As such, the impending US withdrawals will likely place an unbearable burden on these alleged beneficiaries.  
 
Throughout the Iraq War, Iran both relied on the US to keep violent insurgents in check and used the entrenchment of US forces to weaken the US military by feeding the insurgencies.  In many respects, the same relationship exists throughout the entire Middle East.  The US is needed to stabilize the region, so competing factions can continue to undermine each other and the US through their support of violent extremists and insurgencies.  The withdrawals in both Syria and Afghanistan represent a significant disengagement from the entire region, thus it is an effort to remove the US from an abusive, degenerative situation.  If it comes to fruition, it will assuredly mean a surge in violence and increased instability.  Regional powers will also reap the consequences of their underhandedness while Russia will be forced to abandon its military operations in the Middle East or entrap itself in a perpetual conflict that will deplete its military.  In all likeliness, a US troop withdrawal will not translate into a full fledged disengagement from the Middle East.  Airstrikes were the tactic of choice for the Obama Administration, which largely consigned itself to a support role in Middle Eastern military operations.  The same is likely to be even more true for the Trump Administration.  If it is not enough, because Middle Eastern powers will or cannot step up to address their regional security, the region will descend into chaos, but the benefits for the US may well outweigh the costs of the tertiary terrorist threat faced by the United States . 
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  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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