The Washington Outsider

US Power Tested by Russia and China: Who Has More to Lose?

5/30/2015

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Russia and China watched as the US struggled to wage war on two fronts during the Iran and Afghanistan Wars.  During that time, challenges to US influence and credibility from Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea were weakly contested.  Throughout the Ukraine Crisis, China has avoiding taking an overtly aggressive stance as Russia tested the ability of the West to corral its domineering behavior.

What China has observed is that a large world power can withstand Western attempts to isolate it without a catastrophic outcome.  It has also reaffirmed Westerners are conflict averse and focus on economic security above global security.  After all, even threats like the Islamic State went unchallenged until the actions of the terrorist group were framed as a global threat.  Presiding over the second largest economy with the third most powerful military in the world, it seems Beijing’s calculations more and more mirror those of Russia, which has the second most powerful military. 
Facing Germany, Italy, and Japan, the United States and the Allied Forces endured a formidable challenge that inevitably ended in a victory for all of Europe and Asia.  Facing off against Russia and China, the odds against the United States would be quite daunting, even with the aid of traditional allies while it likely could not win in a drawn out ground war.  The United States would have to rally the support of European and Asian allies whose ties have yet to be tested in battle while catastrophic damage would be assured and nuclear war would be a very real possibility.

Putin’s bet in the Ukraine Crisis seems to be on America’s unwillingness to risk a catastrophic war over regional affairs and Europe’s willingness to eventually cater to Russian interests.  When it comes to China’s domineering stance over the South China Sea, as well as the East China Sea, the calculation appears to be very similar.  The US, which is a global hegemonic power, should not be willing to risk its own economic wellbeing and national security over regional territorial disputes that can be solved peacefully by favoring Chinese interests.

On the other hand, these calculations fail to take into account the defiant spirit of Americans, which is most often seen when confronted with “fight or flight” decisions.  This attitude has only spread as the Peoples of the world have Americanized.  What drives the American People, and ultimately the US democratic government, is not necessarily rational policy decisions.  It is what the American People feel is the “right thing to do” that will eventually push them to defend against the aggressions of the Russian and Chinese governments. 

Although there are plenty in the governments of the world that view conflict in the rational terms of a cost-best benefit analysis,  and almost all nations will seek to avoid conflict when possible, America’s historic use of its hegemonic power to protect the rights and interests of weak countries draws nations and Peoples to the US in times of conflict.  Consequently, the calculations of Moscow and Beijing fail to factor in the damage Moscow and Beijing are doing to their own economic and soft power by acting in ways that suppress the interests of others. 

The United States has always been strongest when it has derived power by galvanizing others to the cause that is the “common good” and sought to serve the Peoples of the world.  With Russia and China’s economies on the verge of major disasters, escalating conflict with the US will only push their economies into depression and recession.  Certainly, the US will be hurt, but it can use the crisis as an opportunity to shed its reliance on Chinese imports and strengthen its economic ties with more friendly allies, sins the deleveraging costs of free trade agreements.  In the long-term, the threatening stances of Russia and China alone will push away global investment and trade.

It is important to recognize the United States is a global power and it enters regional conflicts for maintaining its own national security and the norms of the International Community that afford it the power to do so.  Russia and China experience US action as meddling in their affairs; however, the US is defending its allies and empowering the Peoples of the world against domineering governments.  The US may not have as many direct interests in the South China Sea as China, but China’s size and aggression toward weaker nations does threaten US global power.  To make the world safe for democracy/America, the US cannot allow world powers like China and Russia to use their might to suppress the interests of their weaker neighbors. 

Clearly, Western calculations have been too optimistic in regards to the effects of economic sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, yet an escalation of conflict to war, if the choice is seen as Putin’s, and further economic collapse could change the politics in Russia very quickly.  The US would also have to abandon efforts to address globalized terrorism.  As the Islamic State has greater interest and easier access to Russia, this poses a greater threat to Russian security than to US security.  For China, economic woes for the masses and oppression in an era of democratization will only build on resentment toward the privileged government elites.  Meanwhile, there is no telling how politically erratic, nuclear North Korea will respond during a conflict between China and the US, which will certainly affect China.

Putin has been successful in sustaining public support, because he has seen the Russian People through periods of economic ruin and crafted a heroic image of himself that helps him frame his conflict with the US as a valiant cause.  The current Communist Party leaders, who have only been in power for a few short years, do not enjoy such a legacy.  The Chinese leadership cannot be confident in their People’s willingness to fight a war, because the government wants a war, especially when it comes to regions like Hong Kong and Tibet.  Consequently, the Chinese government is risking much in terms of economic progress and civil unrest when it provokes conflicts with its neighbors and engages the United States in such aggressive power struggles. 

Finally, the Chinese government is actively framing the South China Sea Crisis as an example of US aggression and troublemaking, which means the United States must frame the power struggle as an example of the self-serving Chinese elites risking the wellbeing of the Chinese People and the Peoples of Asia for their gain.  For the elites who fear the economic repercussions of bad governance, they must feel exposed to the damage that this conflict will create.  The US must also frame the conflict in the eyes of Asians as the US defending the Peoples of the world instead of leaving them to the mercy of powerful governments.
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      • Do Americans value freedom?
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        • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • How the People Are Lost in the Extremes of 'Right' and 'Left' in Politics
      • Should One's Faith Influence a Citizen's Vote?
      • Should the U.S. Government Help Fund Election Campaigns?
      • On Defunding Political Science Research
    • Worldview >
      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
      • Rising Western Acceptance of LGBT Primes Culture Clash
      • The Need for Wisdom Beyond the Numbers
      • Perceptions of the United States
      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
    • Human Nature >
      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
      • Trying to Understand PTSD and Other Trauma-induced Mental Health Issues
      • Exploring Human Emotion >
        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
      • What is a Redneck? Understanding Different Cultures and Thinking
    • Economics >
      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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