The Washington Outsider

Why 2018 Is A Referendum On Donald Trump

11/5/2018

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​The 2018 Midterms have been billed as a referendum on President Donald Trump.  Most midterms elections are considered a referendum on the US President.  Not only do they reflect the amount of support the President has gained or lost over the two years since his campaign victory, midterms are an opportunity for voters to cement or transform the ideological composition of government.  They are also a chance for the American People to register their support or disapproval for the President’s policy agenda.  This is particularly true when it comes to congressional and gubernatorial contests.  Although there are local elections occurring within the umbrella of the midterms and all candidates run on issues tailored to local concerns, elections have been “nationalized” to the point local issues and concerns have taken a backseat.  To boot, the focus of midterms is no longer national issues.  The 2018 midterms are largely “no Issues” elections geared toward power politics, which is why they serve as a referendum on President Trump to a large degree.
​Local government has the greatest potential to best represent the views and interests of American citizens.  Absent corruption, the undue influence of special interests, and a lack of voter participation, local officials are chosen by the smallest number of people, so voters have a greater say on who is elected.  Assuming voters have choices that truly represent their diverse views, the views of a voter are more likely to be reflected by their elected official.  More local governments are, therefore, more representative of the People than more national governments.  City officials are more likely to represent the concerns of community members than State officials while State officials are more likely to represent the interests of State residents than federal officials.  Federal and State governments exist, of course, to serve as a check on local governments that might engage in discriminatory policies against under-represented groups and as an administrative body capable of addressing issues that reach beyond community borders, but local governments should theoretical best represent the interests of the People.
 
Local government does not, however, exist in a bubble.  Local and State governments, as well as the Federal government, exist in a political environment dominated by bigger governments.  In the special case of the United States Federal government, the US has greater influence over the geopolitical environment of the International Community than the International Community has over the United States.  Inside the United States, the California State government is probably one of the few State governments that can regularly challenge the influence of the US Federal government.  Nonetheless, the policies and politics of Washington decide what policy agendas more local governments can and cannot pursue.  Washington politics are, in turn, dominated key officials like the President, who happens to be Donald Trump.  Similarly, most county and city governments are limited in what they can accomplish due to the overriding influence of their State governments.  Because the policies and pursuits of all public officials are strongly shaped by the political environment in which they operate, local candidates are beholden to national politics.  Candidates can run on whatever messages they want, but their political agenda must somewhat align with the political agendas of State and Federal officials or their ambitions will encounter resistance, especially if their plans rely on State and Federal support.
 
That said, US Congressmen and Senators are elected to represent the interests of all their constituents, even those who did not vote for them.  Like their State counterparts, State governors, and local officials, members of Congress are limited by the political environment in which they operate.  Their job is to give their constituents a voice at the table of government as they work to shape national policy.  It is not the job of Congressmen and Senators to abuse their power over the Federal government to cater to the interests of their constituents and flood their States with pork.  Obviously, representatives should reflect the interests of their constituents most of the time, but the need for governance by consensus means members of Congress are often forced to reach compromises that their constituents might disagree with while political dysfunction also prevents them from fulfilling their duties.  This reality is one of the reasons candidates for the US House of Representatives and the US Senate cannot honestly campaign on local concerns and pledge to deliver on a laundry list of campaign promises.  Another reason is that Congressional candidates are beholden to national political and policy agendas.
 
Midterm elections largely serve as referendums on the US President, because candidates can only realistically accomplish a public policy agenda that aligns with that of the US President.  Candidates may want to focus on local concerns and voters may want their representatives in government to focus on their concerns, but the simple truth is that elected officials are bound by political and policy agendas of the most influential people and special interests groups in Washington.  Clearly, there is room for local officials to pursue agendas that better reflect the interests of voters and national officials can influence the political environment in which they operate to push their own agendas, but all things in government are governed by national politics and policy.  At the moment, Donald Trump is driving both.  He tends to cater to the far-Right, but his agenda is erratic and more defined by his personal whims than any ideological allegiance.  A vote against Trump’s Republican Party will decrease his control over government and send a message of repudiation against him personally.  A vote for Trump’s Republican Party will increase his control over government and send a message of support for his unorthodox brand of theater.
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        • Recalibrating Our Foreign Policy Vision for a New Middle East
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      • The Fundamentals of Proper Government in the Middle East and North Africa
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        • What Are Commonsense Regulations?
        • Should Public Health Be a Priority to the Governments of the World?
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      • An Essay on the Role of Government: Why Each Generation Must Define Democracy for Itself
      • Democracy and the Narrowing Power Elite
      • Assessing the Limits of Democracy
      • Do Americans value freedom?
      • Belittling Our Political Leaders
      • Defining "Liberal" and "Conservative"
      • Framing Issues Properly is an Important Political Tool >
        • Assessing US Elections Part I: Framing Issues Properly is an Important Political Tool
        • Assessing US Elections Part II: Focusing on the Economic Frame
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        • Assessing US Elections Part IV: Focusing on the Foreign Policy Frame
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        • The Bipolar Nature of US Politics: Pros and Cons
      • Voting in Mid-term Elections: The Importance of the Congressional Vote
      • The Role of the Media in Politics >
        • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • How the People Are Lost in the Extremes of 'Right' and 'Left' in Politics
      • Should One's Faith Influence a Citizen's Vote?
      • Should the U.S. Government Help Fund Election Campaigns?
      • On Defunding Political Science Research
    • Worldview >
      • Justice for All: The Case for Legal, Social, Economic, and Personal Justice
      • Why Hardliner Thinking in the NSA and CIA is Doing Damage
      • On the Baby Boomer’s Self-Centeredness
      • The Case for Personal Responsibility
      • What Modern Day Revolutionaries Need to Learn from Leader's like Mandela
      • Rising Western Acceptance of LGBT Primes Culture Clash
      • The Need for Wisdom Beyond the Numbers
      • Perceptions of the United States
      • How Honesty Relates to the Great Recession
      • Why the Middle Class and Rich Need to Support Their Long-term Interests
      • The Aristocratic Republic of the United States of America
      • Discussing the Need for Community Support
      • Why New Forms of Capitalism and Socialism Will Compliment Each Other
      • The Reason We Need to Understand What it is to Be Poor in America
      • Why the World Needs to Reinvest in America
      • Why Are We Against Terrorism?
      • Why Does Terrorism Exist?
      • US Influence: The Value of American Citizenship Around the World
      • Responding to "the Soldier as Sacrficial Victim"
    • Human Nature >
      • How comfort defines us as people >
        • Is Suicide a Cowardly Way Out?
      • Defense Against the Dark Arts of Manipulators
      • Defining Abuse >
        • On the Willing Victim of Abuse
        • How to Understand Abuse Victims
        • Recognizing Abuse
      • The Role of Substitution in Decision Making
      • Trying to Understand PTSD and Other Trauma-induced Mental Health Issues
      • Exploring Human Emotion >
        • Mental Illness is Not the Cause of Anger and Violence >
          • Trying to Understand the Boston Marathon Bombing and Other Violent Crimes
          • Getting into the Twisted Mind of the Tucson Murder
      • Describing the Mind as Modes of Thought >
        • It’s Just Sex?
      • Relationships, or Arrangement
      • Understanding the Effects of Groupthink in the Workplace
      • Relating Circular, Inductive, and Deductive Reasoning to the Scientific Method and Religion
      • What is a Redneck? Understanding Different Cultures and Thinking
    • Economics >
      • The Need for Greater Economic Leverage >
        • Evaluating NAFTA and TPP
        • Undercutting Logistics with the Underpaid Independent Contractor
        • Unions: Hindrance or Essential to Free Markets
        • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
        • Haitians Sue the UN for Failure to Help With Cholera
        • Looking at How Corn-based Ethanol and Other Alternative Energy Subsidies Stack Up
      • Empowering the Sovereign Nation-State by Rethinking Trade Policy >
        • Irish Sovereignty Lost Before Bailout
        • Why Sudan's Greatest Long-Term Hurdle is Our Lowest-bidder Economy
        • Reduce US Imports by Buying American Made Products
      • Ending the need for government support and tackling poverty
      • Income inequality: understanding the limitations and psychology of disadvantage
      • Looking at the Future of American Jobs >
        • On Questioning the Need to Address Economic Disparity
        • Minimum Wage is Not the Problem
        • Responding to the "Blip"
        • Why Education Is Not The Civil Rights Issue Of The Twenty-First Century
      • Considering the Impact of the Capital Gains Tax Deduction
      • Embracing a Capitalist Mindset >
        • Capitalism Versus Socialism
        • The Negatives of Socialism
      • Stealing Intellectual Property
      • Changing Business Models: From Enduring Entities to Cash Cows
      • Consumer and Investor Evolution in the Great Recession of 2008-09
      • Dealing with the Issues Surrounding the Patenting of Self-replicating Technologies
      • Is Technology Threatening Jobs?
    • Education >
      • The Role of Education in Creating a More Dynamic Workforce
      • Primary Education in America and the Changing Needs of Society
      • The Greatness of the American Education System
      • Ideas for Improving the United States Education System
      • Are Teachers Treated as Professionals?
      • Is Engaging Parents in Their Children's Education a Major Factor in Turning Around Low-performing Schools?
      • Should Grants Be Awarded to School Districts that Try Innovative Methods to Improve Student Achievement?
    • US Constitution >
      • On Reading the US Constitution
      • The Senate should not do more to limit the powers of the Judicial Branch
      • On the DOJ Justifying the “targeted Killings” of US Citizens
      • Corporations Do Not Have the Same Rights as US Citizens >
        • Corporate America Pleads the First
      • Discussing the Constitutionality of Per Capita Taxes
      • Was the California Supreme Court Right in Legalizing Gay Marriage?
      • Should the Bible Continue to Be Used for Swearing-in Ceremonies and in Courtrooms?
      • Should Religious Student Clubs Be Allowed in Public Schools?
      • Should the Government Control Talk Radio to Make it More "balanced"?
      • The Second Amendment: Not Outdated >
        • Are We Losing Our Second Amendment Rights
      • Eminent Domain Used Against Banks
      • Should a Woman Have the Right to Choose Abortion? >
        • Should Fathers Be Able to Opt Out of Parenthood?
      • Should Smoking Be Allowed in Public Places?
      • Is Teen Driving a Right or a Privilege?
      • Should US Companies Be Required to Provide Equal Pay to Women and Men?
      • Is eighteen too young to vote?
      • First Amendment Rights: The Priviledge of The Press
      • Do Mandatory Seat Belt Laws Violate Individual Rights?
      • Should cell phone use be banned while driving?
      • Dealing with the link between video game violence and children's behavior
      • Should police have to submit to routine drug and alcohol testing?
      • Public schools should not impose mandatory drug testing on students
      • Are High Taxes on Cigarettes Proper?
      • Should pharmacists be required to violate their religious beliefs and dispense the "Morning After Pill?"
      • Should school counselors uphold patient privacy or report students who become unstable?
  • For the record
    • Ongoing Issues >
      • Red Dawn in Ukraine: Understanding the Actions of Russia >
        • On Russia’s Coercion of Ukraine
        • The Russian Annexation of Crimea in the Eyes of the World
        • Putin Has Overplayed His Hand With Crimea
        • Ukraine in Terms of Resovereignization
        • Avoiding a Conflict Between America and Russia Over Ukraine
        • What Drives the World’s Interest in Russia’s Actions in Ukraine
      • China’s Aggressive Pursuit of Interests Demands a Global Response
      • Iran Makes a Deal: A Start to a Long-term Diplomatic Effort to Denuclearize Iran >
        • On the Future of a Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
      • America's Sphere of Influence: Retaking South-East Asia >
        • Power in Asia: Looking at the Power Shift in Japan
        • The China Paradox: Why America is Worried About China
      • Assessing US Support of Israel >
        • Tread Softly Israel for a Heavy Step May Be Your Undoing
      • Understanding the Dysfunctional Nature of the US-Pakistani Relationship
      • Recognizing the True Threat Behind the Current Unrest in the Middle East >
        • Reacting to the Escalating Crackdown in Syria
      • Assessing the Threat of North Korea >
        • Answering North Korea's Call for Food Aid: Breaking the Vicious Cycle Forced Upon Us by a Warring Nation
        • Dealing with the Restarting of the Korean War
        • North Korea Attacks South Korea
      • Dealing with the Ill-effects of Climate Change
      • Racial Inequality and Oppression Do Truly Exist in Today's Society
      • Should energy independence be a high priority in the US?
      • An overview of world wide Human Rights violations
      • Nuclear Threat from Pakistan
      • Return of The Cold War?
    • World >
      • Coverage of FIFA World Cup is a Chance to Focus on Poverty >
        • The FIFA World Cup Offers Benefits for More Than Brazilian Soccer Fans
        • FIFA Can Bring Brazilians Together as a Nation
      • Being Prepared for Any Potential Dangers at the FIFA World Cup Games
      • Treading Softly on the Politicizing of the 2014 Sochi Olympics Over Gay Rights
      • Why NATO Operations in Libya Lack a Well-defined Mission
      • China Hijacks the Web
      • Lessons from the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011
      • A Modernizing Cuba Offers an Opportunity for Capitalists
      • The Seeds of Democracy Take Root in the Middle East
      • The Rebirth of Democracy in Tunisia
      • What May Come from the Hurt Revolution in Libya
      • Responding to the Violence of Qaddafi and Other Besieged Leaders
      • Embracing the Rise of a Democratic Egypt
      • Protests in Afghanistan Turn Deadly for Coalition Forces and UN Personnel
      • Haiti: Another Failing Humanitarian Investment
      • What Karzai Can Learn from Calderon
      • START II: A Necessary, Easy Success that Nearly Failed
      • Why Does the U.S. Government Support Independence for the Breakaway Serb Territory of Kosovo but Oppose Independence for the Breakaway Georgian Territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
      • Iraq's Electric Issues: When Human Wants Trump Economic Sense
      • The International Community Reacts to Wikileaks: We May Be Moving Toward a Third World War in Cyberspace
      • On Climate Gate
      • Assessing Obama's Afghanistan War strategy
      • 2009 Iranian Presidential Election: The Fallout
      • Resolving Sri Lankan Conflict through Free Media
      • What are the Global Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Georgia
      • The War in Iraq: an assessment of President Bush's surge strategy
      • Drug War: Actions of Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador in terms of Resovereignization
      • Is the Iraq Refugee Crisis America's Responsibility?
      • US support for a united Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia: why?
      • Should the US withdraw from Iraq?
      • Setting a Timetable for Troop Withdrawal from Iraq is a Terrible Mistake
      • War on Terrorism is needed
    • Law and Order >
      • Rape in the US Military
      • Ethics of Force-feeding Guantanamo Bay Detainees
      • Reacting to the Aftermath of the Tucson Massacre
    • Economy >
      • Affordability Drives Fear of Obamacare and the Individual Mandate
      • Is the Economy Built for a Job's Recovery?
      • Gutting Healthcare Reform of the Individual Mandate
      • Arizona Budget Cuts Lead to Lethal Healthcare Rationing:
      • Shameful Collection Practices of American Banks
      • The Fed Reveals it Actually Undertook an International Bailout
      • Thoughts on French Budgetary Reforms
      • Seniors Start Businesses
      • The Case for Slimming Down the US Military to Make it Better
      • Looking at the Obama Administration's New Approach to Economic Policy
      • Should the Government Regulate the Credit Card Industry?
      • The Big Three's Big Chance
      • The Unhealthy Tone of the Healthcare Reform Debate
      • Should the federal government offer a bailout for home owners?
      • Environmentalists: Do They Do More Good Than More Harm?
      • Responding to Scott Walker's Contribution to the War on Unions
    • US Government >
      • America Needs to Focus on the Impending Fiscal Crisis
      • Reacting to the Bush Era-tax Cut Extension Deal
      • Quitting the Obama Revolution: The Fickle Nature of American Politics
      • John Boehner's Circus
      • Is the Fed Putting Itself in Jeopardy?
      • Wikileaks Goes After the US State Department
      • Discussing the Political Environment Surrounding the 2011 Budget Debate
      • What the Democrats Can Do to Ensure a GOP Year in 2012
      • What the 2010 Midterm Actually Said
      • Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper
      • Democrats Minus Nancy Pelosi Equals Opportunity
      • Terrorists Go Postal: The Terrorism Threat Reexamined
      • Victory in the 2008 Election: Reaction to Barack Obama'a Win >
        • Expectations for Barack Obama
      • President Obama's first one hundred days
      • John McCain's Negative Campaign
      • Reasons People did not Elect John Mccain
      • History judges the George W. Bush Administration
      • Should the next US President focus on domestic issues?
      • President Bush, should he resign or be impeached
      • Should the Ban on Government Sponsored Assassinations be Repealed
    • Off Topic >
      • A Face of America’s Greatest Generation
      • A Story About a Man Who Made the World a Better Place
      • Making the World a Better Place
      • The Bipolar Ethical Nature of Google
      • Learning Computer Plays Jeopardy
      • Verifying Medicine is the Real Thing
      • Taking a Practical Step Forward in Optical Computing Using Slow Light
      • Scientists Take a Closer Look at How Lithium Batteries Work
      • Remarking on the First Blizzard of the 2010-2011 Winter Season
      • Driving in the Snow: Acceleration is the Key
      • How People in Northwest PA Are Coping with the Increasing Cost of Oil
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